The Miami Heat (25-27), 2.5-point underdogs, will travel to the Golden 1 Center to challenge the Sacramento Kings (28-26). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 218.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 10 p.m. ET on Friday, February 8, 2019.
Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings Betting Odds
The Heat come in on a high note after beating the Portland Trail Blazers in their last contest, 118-108, as 7.5-point underdogs. The Kings, on the other hand, were thoroughly outplayed by the Houston Rockets, 127-101, and were not able to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. The Miami game finished 13.5 points over the projected point total of 212.5, while the Sacramento game went 8 points under the projected point total of 236.
Miami dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a great free throw rate of 0.253 (above their season average of 0.178) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.5 (below their season average of 25.5). Portland had marks of 0.097 and 15.6, respectively, for those same stats. Sacramento, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 40.8 (above their season average of 22.8). Sacramento’s Buddy Hield had a good outing, putting up 20 points and 10 rebounds. Miami, meanwhile, rallied around Hassan Whiteside, who contributed 28 points and 11 rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Willie Cauley-Stein led the Kings to a 123-113 victory. He registered a double-double with 26 points and 13 rebounds. Sacramento covered as a 9-point underdog and the two teams combined for 236 points, which was over the projected point total of 226.5. The Kings’ turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Heat. Sacramento had a rate of 10.0, while Miami posted a mark of 14.4.
Of the Heat’s 52 games, 26 have finished over the total. Miami comes into the contest with records of 25-27 straight up (SU) and 26-25-1 against the spread (ATS).
Much like Miami, games including the Kings have a slight tendency to finish over the projected point total (53.7 percent). Further, Sacramento owns records of 28-26 SU and 31-23 ATS.
It will be a matchup of conflicting tempos as the up-tempo Kings (ranked fifth in the NBA in possessions per game) will look to push the slower-paced Heat (25th in possessions per game). Moreover, the Heat rank 25th in turnover percentage (14.4 percent), while the Kings rank fifth in opponents’ turnover percentage (15.0 percent).
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (22.7) while the Kings rank 18th (24.6).
- Sacramento ranks first in fast break points per game (21.6) while Miami ranks 28th (9.7).
- The Heat rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (43.2) while the Kings rank 26th (51.3).
- Miami averages 46.5 rebounds per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Sacramento ranks 29th in rebounds allowed per game (48.0).
- Miami ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.7) while Sacramento ranks 21st (4.6).
- The Heat average 14.7 second chance points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Kings rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (14.9).
- The Heat rank 11th in three pointers allowed per game (30.7) while the Kings rank 29th (34.2).
- Sacramento ranks 12th in steals per game (8.3) while Miami ranks 15th in steals allowed per game (7.7).
- Sacramento ranks second in points off turnovers per game (20.4) while Miami ranks 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.9).
- Miami is 15-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Sacramento is 8-0.
- In games where they score more than 100 points, the Kings are 26-22 and the Heat are 23-14.
- Sacramento is 19-9 ATS at home, while Miami is 16-9 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 12 of the Heat’s 25 road games, while 15 of the Kings’ 28 home games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Miami and Sacramento have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Kings are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
- During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 117.2 points per game (3.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.4 points per game (1.3 above their season average).
- The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.0, up from 0.4 for the season.
