Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons Betting Prediction 01/18/19

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The Detroit Pistons (19-24) will be 2-point favorites at home in Little Caesars Arena when they challenge the Miami Heat (21-21). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 207.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, January 18, 2019.

Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons Betting Odds

The last time the Pistons took the court, they covered the 4.5-point spread against the Orlando Magic, 120-115. The Heat, on the other hand, were blown out by the Milwaukee Bucks, 124-86, and were unable to cover as 9-point underdogs. The Detroit game went 27 points over the projected point total of 208, while the Miami game went 8 points under the projected point total of 218.

Detroit played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.217 (above their season average of 0.197) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.6 (above their season average of 24.7). For those same stats, Orlando was 0.074 and 19.5, respectively. Miami, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.465 vs. 0.589). Detroit rallied around Andre Drummond, who finished with 14 points and 22 rebounds. Justise Winslow, meanwhile fueled Miami with 19 points, five rebounds and five assists.

In their first matchup this year, Josh Richardson led the Heat to a 120-115 win. He was the game’s top overall scorer with 27 points. Miami covered as a 3-point underdog and the two teams combined for 235 points, which was well over the projected point total of 219.5. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Miami’s biggest advantages. They made 31 trips to the line, while Detroit went 28 times.

Of the Heat’s 42 games, 23 have finished over the projected point total. Miami heads into the contest with records of 21-21 straight up (SU) and 22-19-1 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Miami, just over half of Pistons games have finished under the projected point total. Moreover, Detroit is 19-24 SU and 20-22-1 ATS.

The Heat’s Winslow has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 15 points,6.4 assists,5.2 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Reggie Bullock has averaged 14 points during that same time frame for the Pistons.

The offense of Detroit will go head-to-head against the elite defense of Miami. The Pistons currently rank 24th in offensive efficiency, while the Heat are ninth in defensive efficiency. The Heat should have the advantage on that end of the court. Moreover, the Heat rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (25.8 percent), while the Pistons rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.5 percent).

Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Pistons, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat are 27th in the league with 10.0 fast break points per game while the Pistons are 28th with 9.7 fast break points per game.
  • Detroit ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (11.0) while Miami ranks 26th (14.5).
  • The Pistons rank second in three pointers allowed per game (28.0) while the Heat rank 14th (31.3).
  • Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (22.3) while Detroit ranks 11th (23.9).
  • Miami ranks 20th in points off turnovers per game (15.7) while Detroit ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.5).
  • The Heat rank fourth in blocks per game (6.0) while the Pistons rank 27th (3.9).
  • The Heat rank sixth in rebounds per game (47.0) while the Pistons rank 11th in rebounds allowed per game (44.2).
  • Miami ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (43.2) while Detroit ranks 23rd (51.3).
  • When allowing less than 100 points, Detroit is 4-2 and Miami is 13-1.
  • The Pistons are 19-15 when they score above 100 points, while the Heat are 19-13.
  • Miami is 12-7 ATS on the road, while Detroit is 9-12-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 11 of the Pistons’ 22 home games, while 10 of the Heat’s 19 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Pistons are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Detroit has 4 unders and 1 over, while Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (1.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.8 points per game (0.8 below their season average).
  • The Heat have been outscored by an average of 9.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 0.1 points.