Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets Betting Prediction 04/10/19

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The Brooklyn Nets (41-40), 3.5-point favorites, welcome the Miami Heat (39-42) to Barclays Center to commence their Eastern Conference schedules. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218 points and it will air on YES Network at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 10, 2019.

Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last outing. The Nets (3-point underdogs) defeated the Indiana Pacers 108-96, while the Heat (5.5-point favorite) beat the Philadelphia 76ers 122-99. The Brooklyn game went 16.5 points under the projected point total of 220.5, while the Miami game finished 6.5 points over the projected point total of 214.5.

The Heat had an extraordinary effective field goal percentage of 0.603 (above their season average of 0.515), while the 76ers had a free throw rate of 0.143 (below their season average of 0.244). Meanwhile, Brooklyn’s 0.193 free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Indiana, who had a rate of 0.047. The Nets’ mark was below their season average of 0.214, while the Pacers’ was below their season average of 0.181. D’Angelo Russell had a solid performance for Brooklyn, contributing 20 points, six rebounds and six assists. Dwyane Wade, meanwhile fueled Miami with 30 points.

In three matchups against each other this year, the Heat have won two. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to score 205 points, well under the projected point total of 223. Miami won 117-88, covering as a 2-point favorite. The Heat’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Nets. Miami had a rate of 27.5, while Brooklyn posted a mark of 13.2. Kelly Olynyk was the game’s top overall scorer with 25 points.

Games featuring the Heat have a slight tendency to finish over the O/U total (51.2 percent). Miami heads into the contest with records of 39-42 straight up (SU) and 41-37-2 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Nets’ 81 games, 40 have finished over the total. Additionally, Brooklyn owns records of 41-40 SU and 44-37 ATS.

The Heat’s Wade has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 19 points,4.8 assists per game. Meanwhile, Russell has averaged 24 points,7.4 assists,5.2 rebounds,1.4 steals during that same time frame for the Nets.

Brooklyn might have trouble finding the bottom of the net as they square off against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Miami ranks seventh in defensive efficiency, while the Nets rank 18th in offensive efficiency. Moreover, the Heat rank fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 percent), while the Nets rank 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.3 percent).

Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets Betting Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Nets, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank fourth in assists allowed per game (23.3) while the Nets rank 10th (23.7).
  • Miami ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (42.3) while Brooklyn ranks 24th (51.3).
  • The Nets average 35.9 three pointers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Heat rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (32.8).
  • Miami averages 46.2 rebounds per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Brooklyn ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.1).
  • Brooklyn ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (11.5) while Miami ranks last (9.9).
  • The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Nets rank 26th (4.1).
  • The Heat rank 15th in steals per game (7.6) while the Nets rank 27th (6.6).
  • Miami ranks 20th in points off turnovers per game (15.6) while Brooklyn ranks 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
  • Miami averages 14.2 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Brooklyn ranks 26th in second chance points allowed per game (14.4).
  • Miami is 22-3 when they allow less than 100 points, while Brooklyn is 12-1.
  • The Heat are 35-23 when they score over 100 points, while the Nets are 40-28.
  • Miami is 26-14 ATS on the road, while Brooklyn is 19-21 ATS at home.
  • The Heat have 21 overs, 18 unders and 1 push in 40 road games.
  • In 40 home games, the Nets have 20 overs and 20 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Brooklyn has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Miami has 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
  • The Nets have outscored opponents by an average of 2.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Brooklyn has been defeated by an average of 0.3 points.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 109.4 points per game (3.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.8 points per game (3.9 above their season average).