It figures to be a high-scoring affair as the Houston Rockets (29-21), 4.5-point underdogs, head to Denver to play the Nuggets (35-15). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 227 points and it will air on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET on Friday, February 1, 2019.
Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last outing. The Nuggets (9-point favorites) beat the New Orleans Pelicans, 105-99, while the Rockets (13.5-point favorites) were defeated by the New Orleans Pelicans, 121-116. The Denver game finished 22.5 points under the projected point total of 226.5, while the Houston game went 3 points over the projected point total of 234.
Denver played a nearly flawless game. They had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 8.5 (better than their season average of 11.6) and a free throw rate of 0.135 (matching their season average). New Orleans was 12.9 and 0.112, respectively, for those same stats. Houston, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (9.7 vs. 14.4). Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver with 20 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists to notch his seventh triple-double this year. Meanwhile, Houston was led by James Harden, who finished with 37 points, 11 rebounds and six assists.
In their two matchups this season, the Rockets have won both. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 238 points, well over the projected point total of 215.5. Houston won 125-113, covering as a 1-point favorite. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Houston’s biggest strengths. They made 34 trips to the line, while Denver went 21 times. Harden recorded a double-double with 32 points and 14 assists.
Of the Rockets’ 50 games, 27 have finished over the total. Houston holds records of 29-21 straight up (SU) and 23-26-1 against the spread (ATS).
There does not appear to be a trend for games involving the Nuggets in regards to the projected point total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Additionally, Denver owns records of 35-15 SU and 27-23 ATS.
Denver could dominate on the offensive side of the ball as their productive offense faces off against one of the NBA’s worst defenses. The Nuggets currently rank fifth in offensive efficiency, while Houston ranks 24th in defensive efficiency.
Rockets vs. Nuggets Odds Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets average 7.9 steals per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. The Rockets rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
- Denver ranks third in assists per game (27.2) while Houston ranks 28th (20.8).
- The Nuggets average 15.7 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. The Rockets rank 20th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (44.5) while Denver ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (32.0).
- Houston ranks 13th in blocks per game (5.4) while Denver ranks 26th (4.5).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.0) while the Rockets rank 28th (42.5).
- The Nuggets rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Rockets rank 17th (17.1).
- Denver ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while Houston ranks 11th (12.8).
- Denver ranks sixth in rebounds per game (46.8) while Houston ranks 26th (41.9).
- Houston is 8-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Denver is 17-1.
- When reaching 100 points, the Rockets are 27-13 and the Nuggets are 33-10.
- Houston is 8-15 ATS on the road, while Denver is 18-8 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 13 of the Rockets’ 23 road games, while 15 of the Nuggets’ 26 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Nuggets are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Rockets are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Denver has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Houston has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.2, up from 5.7 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 109.4 points per game (2.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 113.8 points per game (2.9 above their season average).
