Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers Betting Prediction 12/28/18

Posts AdminNBA

The league’s top scoring defense will be a 6.5-point favorite at home in Bankers Life Fieldhouse, when the Indiana Pacers (23-12) clash with the Detroit Pistons (16-16). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 206 points and it will air on Fox Sports Midwest – Indiana at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, December 28, 2018.

Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers ATS Odds

Both teams covered as favorites in their last outing. The Pacers (6.5-point favorites) defeated the Atlanta Hawks 129-121, while the Pistons (4-point favorites) beat the Washington Wizards 106-95. The Indiana game went 30 points over the projected point total of 220, while the Detroit game went 20.5 points under the projected point total of 221.5.

Detroit played a nearly flawless game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 30.6 (above their season average of 25.4) and a free throw rate of 0.225 (above their season average of 0.202). Washington had marks of 14.6 and 0.120, respectively, for those same stats. Indiana, meanwhile, dominated nearly every stat category in their game. They had a superb free throw rate of 0.289 (above their season average of 0.175) and a turnover percentage of 14.1 (worse than their season average of 13.2). Atlanta was 0.157 and 16.4, respectively, for those same stats. Victor Oladipo played well for Indiana with 16 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. Detroit, meanwhile, was lifted by Blake Griffin, who recorded 23 points, nine rebounds and six assists.

The Pistons edged out the Pacers in this series last year, emerging victorious in three out of four games. In the most recent game, Detroit won 107-83. Detroit’s rebounding was their biggest strength. The Pistons had 10 offensive rebounds and 46 total rebounds, while the Pacers had five and 26, respectively. This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year.

Of the Pistons’ 32 games, 17 have finished under the projected point total. Detroit holds records of 16-16 straight up (SU) and 16-15-1 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas tends to set the total high when the Pacers are involved, as 23 of their 32 games have ended under the O/U total. Further, Indiana owns records of 23-12 SU and 19-15-1 ATS.

Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young have played well over the last five games for Indiana. Turner has averaged 16 points,11.8 rebounds,3.6 blocks, while Young has put up 13 points,6.0 rebounds,1.4 steals a game during that span.

Looking at effective field goal percentage, Indiana figures to have a noteworthy advantage. The Pacers defense ranks third in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.504), while the Detroit offense is ranked 28th in effective field goal percentage (0.497).

Pistons at Pacers Betting Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Pacers rank 1 in rebounds allowed per game (42.48571428571429) while the Pistons rank 14 (44.40625).
  • Indiana ranks second in steals per game (9.1) while Detroit ranks 24th (6.8).
  • The Pacers rank 11th in blocks per game (5.4) while the Pistons rank 28th (4.1).
  • Indiana ranks ninth in assists per game (25.2) while Detroit ranks 25th (22.1).
  • Detroit ranks 5 in fast break points allowed per game (11.25) while Indiana ranks 19 (14.371428571428572).
  • The Pistons rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (33.8) while the Pacers rank 28th (25.2).
  • The Pacers rank 3 in points off turnovers per game (19.228571428571428) while the Pistons rank 18 (16.1875).
  • Detroit allows the 2-fewest second chance points per game (11.375) while Indiana ranks 5 (11.714285714285714).
  • Indiana ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.1) while Detroit ranks 21st (50.2).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, Indiana is 12-3 and Detroit is 3-2.
  • The Pacers are 20-5 when they score over 100 points, while the Pistons are 16-10.
  • Detroit is 8-5 ATS on the road, while Indiana is 9-8 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 14 of the Pacers’ 17 home games, while 6 of the Pistons’ 13 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Pacers are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Pistons are 2-2-1.
  • In their last five games, Indiana has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Detroit has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 107.0 points per game (0.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.4 points per game (0.2 above their season average).
  • The Pistons’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 0.7 for the season.