The Dallas Mavericks (23-27), 2.5-point underdogs, will travel to Little Caesars Arena to clash with the Detroit Pistons (21-28). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 208 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Detroit at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 31, 2019.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons ATS Odds
In the Mavericks’ last outing, they won big over the New York Knicks, 114-90, easily covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Pistons, meanwhile, were defeated by the Milwaukee Bucks, 115-105, and failed to cover as 7-point underdogs. The Dallas game went 16 points under the projected point total of 220, while the Detroit game went 3.5 points over the projected point total of 216.5.
The Mavericks held the Knicks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.6 (below their season average of 22.9) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.625 (above their season average of 0.520). Detroit, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.3 vs. 17.1). Andre Drummond had a solid performance for Detroit with 20 points and 13 rebounds. Meanwhile, Dennis Smith Jr. played an enormous role in the victory for Dallas, accumulating 13 points, 15 assists and 10 rebounds on his way to his zeroth triple-double of the season.
In their first matchup this year, Doncic led the Mavericks to a 106-101 win. He produced 32 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. Dallas covered as a 5-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 207 points, which was just under the projected point total of 207.5. The Mavericks’ 8.7 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Pistons, who had a mark of 11.1.
Mavericks games have a slight tendency to go under the projected point total (53.1 percent). Dallas holds records of 23-27 straight up (SU) and 30-19 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Pistons’ 49 games, 28 have finished under the projected point total. Further, Detroit owns records of 21-28 SU and 22-26-1 ATS.
The aggressive Dallas offense could be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this battle. The Mavericks rank fourth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.230, while Detroit ranks 27th in FTA rate allowed (0.219).
Mavericks vs. Pistons ATS Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pistons, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Detroit ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (12.2) while Dallas ranks 29th (17.2).
- The Mavericks rank 10th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.4) while the Pistons rank 26th (51.4).
- Detroit ranks second in three pointers allowed per game (27.9) while Dallas ranks 14th (31.1).
- Dallas ranks 24th in assists per game (22.8) while Detroit ranks 26th (22.2).
- The Mavericks rank sixth in blocks allowed per game (4.6) while the Pistons rank 27th (5.6).
- The Pistons rank first in second chance points allowed per game (10.9) while the Mavericks rank 11th (12.9).
- Detroit ranks 10th in steals allowed per game (7.4) while Dallas ranks 28th (8.5).
- Detroit is 6-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 8-2.
- The Pistons are 19-18 when they reach the century mark, while the Mavericks are 23-22.
- Dallas is 12-12 ATS on the road, while Detroit is 10-14-1 ATS at home.
- In 24 road games, the Mavericks have 12 unders, 11 overs and 1 push.
- Of the Pistons’ 25 home games, they have 13 unders and 12 overs.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Dallas and Detroit have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Pistons are 1-4.
- The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 0.5 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 98.4 points per game (7.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game (4.9 below their season average).
