Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction 01/10/19

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The Miami Heat (19-20) will be 1-point underdogs at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they clash with the Boston Celtics (25-15). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 210 points and it is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 10, 2019.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

The last time the Celtics played, they easily covered the 10.5-point spread against the Indiana Pacers, 135-108. The Heat, on the other hand, were defeated by the Denver Nuggets, 103-99, and failed to cover as 2-point underdogs. The Boston game went 23.5 points over the projected point total of 219.5, while the Miami game finished 7.5 points under the projected point total of 209.5.

Boston played a nearly flawless game. They had a fantastic effective field goal percentage of 0.648 (above their season average of 0.532) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.0 (above their season average of 22.3). Indiana was 0.478 and 23.5, respectively, for those same stats. Miami, meanwhile, had a turnover percentage of 6.0 (better than their season average of 12.6). Miami received a boost from Hassan Whiteside, who finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds. Meanwhile, Jaylen Brown was a key piece for Boston with 22 points and seven rebounds.

The Heat edged out the Celtics in this series last year, securing victories in two out of three games. In the last game, Miami won 90-89. The Heat’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Celtics. Miami had a rate of 13.3, while Boston posted a mark of 11.1. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Games involving the Celtics have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (61.5 percent). Boston comes into the contest with records of 25-15 straight up (SU) and 21-18 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Heat’s 39 games, 21 have finished over the total. Additionally, Miami owns records of 19-20 SU and 20-18-1 ATS.

The Celtics’ Terry Rozier has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 11 points,4.4 assists,1.6 steals per game. Meanwhile, Justise Winslow has averaged 14 points,6.0 rebounds,6.0 assists,1.6 steals during that same time frame for the Heat.

The ineffective offense of Miami will go head-to-head against the top-notch defense of Boston. The Heat currently rank 23rd in offensive efficiency, while the Celtics are second in defensive efficiency. The Celtics should have the advantage on that end of the court.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Free Pick

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Celtics rank second in steals allowed per game (7.0) while the Heat rank 10th (7.3).
  • Miami ranks second in second chance points per game (15.3) while Boston ranks 24th (12.3).
  • The Celtics rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while the Heat rank 19th (17.4).
  • Miami averages 47.2 rebounds per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Boston ranks 19th in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
  • Miami ranks 17th in points in the paint per game (48.1) while Boston ranks 26th (43.0).
  • The Celtics rank seventh in fast break points per game (16.6) while the Heat rank 28th (10.1).
  • The Heat rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (33.2) while the Celtics rank 21st in three pointers allowed per game (32.6).
  • Miami is second in the NBA with 22.2 assists allowed per game while Boston is third with 22.3 assists allowed per game.
  • Boston ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Miami ranks 21st (5.4).
  • In games where they allow less than 100 points, Miami is 12-1 and Boston is 9-2.
  • The Heat are 17-13 when they score above 100 points, while the Celtics are 25-12.
  • Boston is 8-12 ATS on the road, while Miami is 8-12-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 11 of the Heat’s 21 home games, while 13 of the Celtics’ 20 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Boston and Miami have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Celtics are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
  • The Celtics’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 14.6, up from 7.1 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.4 points per game (2.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.6 points per game (1.1 below their season average).