Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Prediction 04/05/19

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The NBA’s top scoring defense will be a 1.5-point underdog at home in Bankers Life Fieldhouse, when the Indiana Pacers (47-32) clash with the Boston Celtics (47-32). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, April 5, 2019.

Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Pacers (2.5-point underdogs) defeated the Detroit Pistons 108-89, while the Celtics (1-point favorite) beat the Miami Heat 112-102. The Indiana game finished 8.5 points under the projected point total of 205.5, while the Boston game hit the projected point total of 214.

Boston played a nearly perfect game. They had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.338 (above their season average of 0.172) and a turnover percentage of 10.5 (better than their season average of 11.2). Miami was 0.128 and 12.7, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Indiana’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Detroit. The Pacers had a rate of 9.8 (better than their season average of 12.3), while the Pistons posted a mark of 16.6 (above their season average of 11.6). Thaddeus Young had a good outing for Indiana, recording 21 points and eight rebounds. Gordon Hayward, meanwhile was a key piece for Boston with 25 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

In the season series between these two teams, the Celtics lead two games to one. The two teams combined to put up 226 points in their most recent game, which was over the projected point total of 213. Boston won 114-112 but was unable to cover as an 8-point favorite. Boston’s effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over Indiana. The Celtics had a rate of 0.587 while the Pacers posted a mark of 0.533. Kyrie Irving was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points.

Vegas tends to set the total low when the Celtics are involved, as 55.7 percent of their games have finished over the projected point total. Boston holds records of 47-32 straight up (SU) and 36-41-2 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Boston, Pacers games have typically gone under the projected point total (58.2 percent). Additionally, Indiana is 47-32 SU and 39-39-1 ATS.

The Celtics’ Hayward has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 14 points,6.2 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Myles Turner has averaged 15 points,10.8 rebounds,2.6 blocks during that same time frame for the Pacers.

The offense of Indiana (17th in the league with an offensive efficiency of 107.8) will clash against the top-notch defense of Boston (sixth in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 105.6). The Celtics should have the advantage on that side of the ball. Furthermore, the Celtics commit the fourth-fewest errors in the league (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while the disruptive defense of the Pacers causes the second-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.0 percent).

Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Celtics rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Pacers rank sixth (15.0).
  • Boston ranks seventh in three pointers attempted per game (34.5) while Indiana ranks 28th (25.3).
  • The Celtics rank seventh in fast break points per game (16.1) while the Pacers rank 18th in fast break points allowed per game (13.9).
  • Boston ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.8) while Indiana ranks 12th (7.5).
  • Indiana averages 13.4 second chance points per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Boston ranks 17th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
  • The Celtics rank second in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while the Pacers rank 20th (5.2).
  • The Celtics average 26.2 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Pacers rank 13th in assists allowed per game (24.4).
  • Indiana ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.6) while Boston ranks fifth (45.8).
  • Indiana ranks fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while Boston ranks 20th (45.8).
  • When allowing less than 100 points, Indiana is 25-3 and Boston is 15-4.
  • When reaching 100 points, the Celtics are 47-23 and the Pacers are 42-17.
  • Boston is 16-21-2 ATS on the road, while Indiana is 23-16 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 25 of the Pacers’ 39 home games, while 20 of the Celtics’ 39 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Pacers are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Celtics are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Indiana has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Boston has 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
  • The Pacers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, down from 3.8 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 109.6 points per game (2.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.0 points per game (1.0 below their season average).