Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction

Victor TrejosBasketball, NBA

The Milwaukee Bucks (4-0), 1-point favorites, try to stay unbeaten when they square off with the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-3) at Target Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 233 points and it will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, October 26, 2018.

Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Bucks (5-point favorites) beat the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-108, while the Timberwolves (8.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Toronto Raptors, 112-105. The Milwaukee game went 3.5 points over the projected point total of 227.5, while the Minnesota game went 9 points under the projected point total of 226.

Milwaukee played a flawless game. They had a superb turnover percentage of 9.6 (better than their season average of 14.7) and a free throw rate of 0.280 (above their season average of 0.164). Philadelphia was 13.2 and 0.228, respectively, for those same stats. Minnesota, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.7 (above their season average of 23.1). Jimmy Butler fueled Minnesota with 23 points, six steals and five assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo played a huge role in the victory for Milwaukee, accumulating 32 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists on his way to his zeroth triple-double this year.

Half-court execution will be critical when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Minnesota ranks 22nd in possessions per game (98.4) and Milwaukee is 23rd (98.1) dating back to the 2017-18 season. ,

Since last season, the Bucks have had records of 48-38 straight up (SU) and 41-51 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of Milwaukee games have finished over the projected point total since last season.

The Timberwolves have had a decent 49-38 SU record since last season, but are just 39-48 ATS. Over that same time frame, Minnesota’s games have had a tendency to go over the O/U total (52.9 percent).

This was a highly contested series last year. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. The Timberwolves won the most recent game 108-89. Minnesota had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.583 vs. 0.412). Milwaukee, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.0 vs. 12.5).

Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes (2017-Present):

  • The Bucks rank 25th in three pointers attempted per game (25.5) while the Timberwolves rank last (22.7).
  • Minnesota ranks eighth in second chance points per game (13.3) while Milwaukee ranks last (10.4).
  • The Bucks rank second in fast break points allowed per game (10.0) while the Timberwolves rank 19th (12.7).
  • Milwaukee ranks 12th in assists per game (23.3) while Minnesota ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (23.8).
  • Minnesota ranks 22nd in rebounds per game (42.1) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (40.3).
  • The Bucks rank fourth in blocks per game (5.6) while the Timberwolves rank 23rd (4.2).
  • The Bucks average 17.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the league. The Timberwolves rank 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.3).
  • Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while Milwaukee ranks fifth (7.1).
  • Minnesota averages 49.1 points in the paint per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
  • Milwaukee is 19-6 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Minnesota is 20-4.
  • When scoring over 100 points, the Bucks are 44-22 and the Timberwolves are 47-28.
    •