Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers ATS Prediction

Victor TrejosBasketball, NBA

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-0) get their home schedule started at Fiserv Forum as 3-point favorites against the Indiana Pacers (1-0). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, October 19, 2018.

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

The Pacers will be hoping for similar success after comfortably covering the 7.5-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in their last contest, 111-83. The Bucks, on the other hand, topped the Charlotte Hornets,113-112, but were not able to cover as 3-point favorites. The Indiana game went 10.5 points under the projected point total of 204.5, while the Milwaukee game went 3 points over the projected point total of 222.

The Pacers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (38.2 vs. 13.7) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.627 vs. 0.357). The Bucks, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.6 vs. 16.4) and had a better free throw rate (0.176 vs. 0.152). Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way for Milwaukee, contributing 25 points, 18 rebounds and eight assists. Meanwhile, Indiana received a boost from Domantas Sabonis, who had 14 points and 15 rebounds.

Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Milwaukee ranks 23rd in possessions per game (97.8) and Indiana is 27th (97.5) dating back to last season. ,

Since last season, the Pacers are 49-34 straight up (SU) and 42-43-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Indiana games since last season with 43 overs compared to 43 unders.

The Bucks, on the other hand, are 45-38 SU and 39-50 ATS since last season. Games including Milwaukee have had a slight tendency to go over the O/U total over that same stretch (51.7 percent).

The Pacers edged out the Bucks in this series last year, winning three out of four games. In the most recent contest, Indiana won 92-89. The Pacers’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Bucks. Indiana had a rate of 14.0, while Milwaukee posted a mark of 16.2.

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks Odds Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Over

Betting Notes (2017-Present):

  • Neither of these teams shoot many long balls. The Bucks are 25th in the NBA with 24.9 three pointers per game while the Pacers are 26th with 24.7 threes per game.
  • Milwaukee ranks fourth in blocks per game (5.5) while Indiana ranks 24th (4.1).
  • The Pacers average 45.1 points in the paint per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Bucks rank 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.0).
  • Indiana averages 18.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the league. Milwaukee ranks 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.8).
  • Indiana averages 8.7 steals per game, which ranks second in the league. Milwaukee ranks fifth in steals allowed per game (7.1).
  • The Bucks rank second in fast break points allowed per game (10.0) while the Pacers rank 16th (12.0).
  • The Pacers rank 22nd in rebounds per game (42.3) while the Bucks rank last (39.9).
  • Indiana ranks 17th in second chance points per game (12.1) while Milwaukee ranks last (10.2).
  • Indiana is 30-5 when they allow under 100 points, while Milwaukee is 19-6.
  • When scoring above 100 points, the Bucks are 41-22 and the Pacers are 41-18.
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