Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ATS Prediction

Victor TrejosBasketball, NBA

The NBA’s top scoring defense will be 2-point favorites at home in TD Garden, when the Boston Celtics (5-2) go head-to-head with the Milwaukee Bucks (7-0). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215 points and it can be seen on TNT at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 1, 2018.

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Betting Odds

The last time the Bucks played, they beat the Toronto Raptors, 124-109, despite being 2-point underdogs. The Celtics, meanwhile, beat the Detroit Pistons,108-105, but were unable to cover as 9-point favorites. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Milwaukee game went 10 points over the projected point total of 223, while the Boston game finished 1 point over the projected point total of 212.

Milwaukee launched 45 three pointers, making 19 of them (42.2 percent), while Toronto was just 9-45 (20.0 percent). Meanwhile, Boston played a nearly perfect game. They had a turnover percentage of 12.5 (worse than their season average of 11.7) and a free throw rate of 0.298 (above their season average of 0.172). Detroit recorded marks of 14.5 and 0.261, respectively, for those same stats. Boston’s Kyrie Irving led the way, recording 31 points, five rebounds and five assists. Meanwhile, Ersan Ilyasova fueled Milwaukee with 19 points and 10 rebounds.

Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Boston ranks 27th in possessions per game (97.9) and Milwaukee is 24th (98.4) dating back to the 2017-18 season. ,

Bucks games have typically finished over the total (71.4 percent). Milwaukee comes into the game with records of 7-0 straight up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Milwaukee, games featuring the Celtics have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (71.4 percent). Boston is 5-2 SU, but they are just 3-4 ATS.

The Celtics took this series last year, winning six out of 11 games. In the last matchup, Boston won 112-96. Boston out-rebounded Milwaukee. The Celtics had more offensive rebounds (11 vs. four), defensive rebounds (31 vs. 28) and total rebounds (42 vs. 32).

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Free Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2017-Present):

  • The Celtics rank 10th in three pointers attempted per game (30.6) while the Bucks rank 25th (25.9).
  • Milwaukee ranks third in points off turnovers per game (17.8) while Boston ranks 26th (15.1).
  • The Bucks rank sixth in fast break points per game (14.6) while the Celtics rank 25th (9.8).
  • Boston ranks 10th in rebounds per game (44.3) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (40.9).
  • Milwaukee ranks fourth in blocks per game (5.6) while Boston ranks 20th (4.4).
  • The Bucks rank seventh in points in the paint per game (47.7) while the Celtics rank 29th (40.0).
  • The Bucks rank fifth in steals per game (8.4) while the Celtics rank 23rd (7.2).
  • Boston ranks third in assists allowed per game (21.2) while Milwaukee ranks 15th (23.3).
  • Boston ranks fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while Milwaukee ranks 23rd (13.1).
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, Boston is 45-8 and Milwaukee is 21-6.
  • When reaching the century mark, the Celtics are 56-16 and the Bucks are 47-22.
    •