Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns ATS Prediction

Victor TrejosBasketball, NBA

The Phoenix Suns (4-21) and the Miami Heat (9-14) battle at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns look to snap their seven-game losing streak. Action begins at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, December 7, 2018, and can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle.

Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns ATS Odds

Both teams lost as favorites in their last contest. The Suns (5.5-point favorites) were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers, 108-86, while the Heat (2.5-point favorites) fell to the Orlando Magic, 105-90. The Phoenix game went 28.5 points under the projected point total of 222.5, while the Miami game finished 13 points under the projected point total of 208.

Miami had an offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (above their season average of 26.1) while Phoenix had a better turnover percentage (14.1 vs. 14.9). Phoenix’s Josh Jackson led the way, finishing with 14 points and seven rebounds. Meanwhile, Hassan Whiteside fueled Miami with 12 points and nine rebounds.

The Heat dominated this series last year, taking both contests. In the last game, Miami won 125-103. Converting at the free throw line was one of Miami’s largest strengths. They were 19-23 (82.6 percent), while the Suns were just 9-18 (50.0 percent). This is the first time these teams will battle this year.

Vegas tends to set the total low when the Heat are involved, as 56.5 percent of their games have ended over the O/U total. Miami comes into the game with records of 9-14 straight up (SU) and 10-13 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Miami, games featuring the Suns tend to finish under the projected point total (58.3 percent). Moreover, Phoenix is 4-21 SU and 8-16 ATS.

The Heat’s Dwyane Wade has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 19 points,5.0 assists per game. Meanwhile, Jackson has averaged 12 points,6.2 rebounds,3.6 assists,1.2 steals during that same time frame for the Suns.

The offensive glass could be a huge advantage for Miami in this showdown. The Heat currently rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.4 percent), while Phoenix ranks 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.8 percent).

Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns Odds Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Suns, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank 21 in points off turnovers per game (16.26086956521739) while the Suns rank 29 in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.8).
  • Miami ranks first in blocks per game (6.7) while Phoenix ranks 25th (4.0).
  • The Heat rank fifth in second chance points per game (15.2) while the Suns rank 27th (10.2).
  • Miami ranks ninth in fast break points allowed per game (12.7) while Phoenix ranks last (17.7).
  • Miami ranks 13 in steals allowed per game (7.478260869565218) while Phoenix ranks 29 (9.48).
  • The Heat rank fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (45.4) while the Suns rank 29th (53.3).
  • The Heat rank 5 in assists allowed per game (21.652173913043477) while the Suns rank 24 (25.36).
  • Phoenix ranks 4 in three pointers allowed per game (28.24) while Miami ranks 8 (29.82608695652174).
  • Miami ranks sixth in rebounds per game (47.6) while Phoenix ranks 29th (40.0).
  • In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Phoenix is 1-1 and Miami is 3-1.
  • When scoring above 100 points, the Heat are 8-10 and the Suns are 4-11.
  • Miami is 5-4 ATS on the road, while Phoenix is 5-7 ATS at home.
  • In 9 road games, the Heat have 6 overs and 3 unders.
  • The Suns have 8 unders and 4 overs in 12 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 0-5.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Phoenix has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.0, up from 2.0 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 94.2 points per game (8.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.8 points per game (1.0 below their season average).