Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies Free Prediction

Victor TrejosBasketball, NBA

The Memphis Grizzlies (16-11) will be at home in FedExForum when they square off against the Miami Heat (11-16). The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 14, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies Betting Odds

In the Grizzlies’ previous outing, they beat the Portland Trail Blazers, 92-83, covering as 3-point favorites. The Heat, meanwhile, were dismantled by the Utah Jazz, 111-84, and were unable to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. The Memphis game finished 27 points under the projected point total of 202, while the Miami game finished 16 points under the projected point total of 211.

Memphis dominated every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 18.4 (above their season average of 17.9) and a free throw rate of 0.195 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Portland was 8.7 and 0.149, respectively. Miami, meanwhile, forced Utah into a turnover percentage of 16.6 (above the 12.4 mark opponents have averaged against Miami this season). Memphis rallied around Mike Conley, who contributed 23 points, six rebounds and six assists. Kelly Olynyk had a solid performance for Miami, recording 14 points and eight rebounds.

The Heat dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the most recent contest, Miami won 115-89. The Heat’s 9.0 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Grizzlies, who had a mark of 17.8. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Of the Heat’s 27 games, 14 have finished over the O/U total. Miami heads into the game with records of 11-16 straight up (SU) and 13-14 against the spread (ATS).

Grizzlies games have typically finished under the total (59.3 percent). Further, Memphis owns records of 16-11 SU and 16-11 ATS.

Olynyk has been exceptional recently for Miami, averaging 14 points,6.4 rebounds over the last five games.

Miami could struggle to create turnovers. Memphis ranks seventh in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.1 percent), while Miami forces the 18th-most turnovers (13.8 percent). Also, the Heat rank 27th in offensive efficiency (103.7), while the Grizzlies rank fifth in defensive efficiency (103.2).

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies Odds Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Grizzlies allow the 3-fewest points in the paint per game (42.81481481481482) while the Heat rank 5 (44.666666666666664).
  • Memphis ranks fifth in points off turnovers per game (19.1) while Miami ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.7).
  • The Heat rank eighth in rebounds per game (47.1) while the Grizzlies rank 29th (39.9).
  • Miami ranks sixth in three pointers attempted per game (33.7) while Memphis ranks 26th (27.4).
  • Memphis ranks 5 in steals per game (9) while Miami ranks 16 (7.777777777777778).
  • The Grizzlies average 6.1 blocks per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Heat rank 25th in blocks allowed per game (6.0).
  • The Heat rank 10 in fast break points allowed per game (12.333333333333334) while the Grizzlies rank 25 (15.518518518518519).
  • Memphis ranks fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.4) while Miami ranks 26th (15.1).
  • When allowing below 100 points, Miami is 5-1 and Memphis is 8-2.
  • The Grizzlies are 11-4 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 10-11.
  • Memphis is 9-4 ATS at home, while Miami is 8-5 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 8 of the Grizzlies’ 13 home games, while 7 of the Heat’s 13 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and Memphis are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Heat have 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push over their last five games, while the Grizzlies have 4 unders and 1 over
  • The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.0, down from 1.3 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 96.4 points per game (6.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 97.6 points per game (4.5 below their season average).