Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Prediction

Victor TrejosBasketball, NBA

The Phoenix Suns (4-24) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (15-11) to Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns are 7-point underdogs and will try to snap their 10-game losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 211 points and action starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 13, 2018.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

The last time the Mavericks played, they covered the 5-point spread against the Atlanta Hawks, 114-107. The Suns, on the other hand, were dismantled by the San Antonio Spurs, 111-86, and failed to cover as 13-point underdogs. The Dallas game went 11 points over the projected point total of 210, while the Phoenix game finished 19.5 points under the projected point total of 216.5.

Dallas dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.427 (above their season average of 0.226) and a turnover percentage of 13.0 (better than their season average of 13.9). Atlanta recorded marks of 0.106 and 17.3, respectively, for those same stats. Phoenix, on the other hand, forced San Antonio into a turnover percentage of 14.1 (above their season average of 10.9). Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton played well, contributing 12 points and 11 rebounds. Luka Doncic, meanwhile played a pivotal role for Dallas with 24 points, 10 rebounds and six assists.

In their first matchup this season, Devin Booker led the Suns to a 121-100 win. He was the game’s leading scorer with 35 points. Phoenix covered as a 2.5-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 221 points, which was over the projected point total of 212.5. Phoenix’s effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over Dallas. The Suns had a rate of 0.660 while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.489.

Games featuring the Mavericks have gone over the total 52.0 percent of the time. Dallas holds records of 15-11 straight up (SU) and 17-8 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Suns’ 28 games, 16 have finished under the total. Additionally, Phoenix owns records of 4-24 SU and 9-19 ATS.

It could be a mistake-prone game for the Phoenix offense. Phoenix ranks 29th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 16.0 percent), while the disruptive defense of Dallas forces the eighth-most turnovers in the league (14.8 percent). Additionally, the Mavericks are among the league’s best at getting to the line, ranking third in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.233). The Suns, meanhwile, rank 28th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.232).

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns ATS Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Suns rank 4 in three pointers allowed per game (28.035714285714285) while the Mavericks rank 14 (31.03846153846154).
  • Dallas ranks sixth in points allowed in the paint per game (45.5) while Phoenix ranks last (52.8).
  • The Mavericks rank 12th in fast break points per game (14.3) while the Suns rank 29th in fast break points allowed per game (17.5).
  • Phoenix averages 8.3 steals per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Dallas ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (9.0).
  • Dallas ranks 16 in assists allowed per game (23.807692307692307) while Phoenix ranks 29 (25.75).
  • The Mavericks rank ninth in second chance points per game (14.2) while the Suns rank 27th (10.1).
  • The Mavericks rank 4 in rebounds allowed per game (42.19230769230769) while the Suns rank 19 (45.892857142857146).
  • Dallas ranks 23 in blocks per game (4.6923076923076925) while Phoenix ranks 26 (4.214285714285714).
  • Dallas averages 18.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Phoenix ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (21.1).
  • Dallas is 4-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Phoenix is 1-1.
  • When reaching the century mark, the Suns are 4-12 and the Mavericks are 15-10.
  • Phoenix is 6-8 ATS at home, while Dallas is 5-6 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Mavericks’ 11 road games, they have 6 overs and 5 unders.
  • The Suns have 8 unders and 6 overs in 14 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Dallas has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Phoenix has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 107.8 points per game (2.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.2 points per game (3.8 below their season average).
  • The Suns\u2019 average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 17.0, up from 11.9 for the season.