Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction 12/20/18

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The Houston Rockets (16-14) head to AmericanAirlines Arena to go head-to-head against the Miami Heat (13-16). The Rockets are a 3.5-point favorite and look to continue their five-game winning streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 208.5 points and it can be seen on TNT at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 20, 2018.

Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last outing. The Heat (6-point underdogs) defeated the New Orleans Pelicans 102-96, while the Rockets (5-point favorite) beat the Washington Wizards 136-118. The Miami game went 23 points under the projected point total of 221, while the Houston game went 41 points over the projected point total of 213.

The Rockets held the Wizards to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.8 (below their season average of 19.8) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.706 (above their season average of 0.530). Miami, meanwhile, out-rebounded New Orleans. The Heat had more offensive rebounds (22 vs. 11), defensive rebounds (35 vs. 27) and total rebounds (57 vs. 38). Miami’s Hassan Whiteside had a solid performance, putting up 17 points and 12 rebounds. Meanwhile, James Harden was a key piece for Houston with 35 points and nine assists.

The Rockets dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the last game, Houston won 109-101. Houston was effective at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Rockets made 21 of their 26 free throws (80.8 percent), while the Heat were 10-12 (83.3 percent). This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Of the Rockets’ 29 games with betting action, 15 have finished over the total. Houston heads into the game with records of 16-14 straight up (SU) and 12-16-1 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Heat’s 29 games, 15 have finished over the projected point total. Further, Miami is 13-16 SU and 15-14 ATS.

Harden has been playing at a high level as of late for Houston, averaging 39 points,7.6 assists,6.6 rebounds,2.2 steals over the last five games.

Miami could dominate the offensive glass in this showdown. The Heat rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (26.3 percent), while Houston ranks 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.1 percent).

Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat average 7.551724137931035 steals per game, which ranks 18 in the league. The Rockets rank 22 in steals allowed per game (8.266666666666667).
  • Miami ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.5) while Houston ranks 28th (40.8).
  • The Rockets rank 14th in second chance points per game (13.3) while the Heat rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (15.1).
  • Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (41.6) while Miami ranks 12th in three pointers allowed per game (30.3).
  • Houston ranks 4 in fast break points allowed per game (11) while Miami ranks 10 (12.517241379310345).
  • The Rockets rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.5) while the Heat rank 25th (5.9).
  • The Rockets rank 18 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.366666666666667) while the Heat rank 28 (18.96551724137931).
  • Miami ranks 22 in assists per game (22.655172413793103) while Houston ranks 26 (21.4).
  • Miami ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.8) while Houston ranks 25th (51.4).
  • Houston is 6-2 when they allow under 100 points, while Miami is 7-1.
  • When scoring over 100 points, the Heat are 12-11 and the Rockets are 14-8.
  • Miami is 5-9 ATS at home, while Houston is 6-10 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 8 of the Rockets’ 16 road games, while 7 of the Heat’s 14 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Houston and Miami have both had 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push.
  • The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Rockets are 3-1-1.
  • The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.9 points.
  • During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 116.0 points per game (6.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.4 points per game (3.6 below their season average).