Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics Free Prediction

Victor TrejosBasketball, NBA

The Boston Celtics (17-10) welcome the Atlanta Hawks (6-21) to TD Garden. The Celtics are a 13-point favorite and will try to continue their seven-game winning streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 224.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southeast at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, December 14, 2018.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics ATS Odds

In their last matchup, the Celtics (3.5-point favorites) covered in a 130-125 victory over the Washington Wizards. The Hawks fell to the Dallas Mavericks, 114-107, but did cover as 10-point underdogs. The Boston game finished 35 points over the projected point total of 220, while the Atlanta game went 5.5 points under the projected point total of 226.5.

Boston played a nearly flawless game. They had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 29.8 (above their season average of 22.6) and a turnover percentage of 10.2 (better than their season average of 11.4). For those same stats, Washington was 18.2 and 12.6, respectively. Atlanta, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (above their season average of 21.2). Boston rallied around Kyrie Irving, who recorded 38 points and seven assists. Meanwhile, John Collins played a pivotal role for Atlanta with 20 points and 17 rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Aron Baynes led the Celtics to a 114-96 win. He put up 16 points and 9 rebounds. The two teams combined to score 210 points, which was under the projected point total of 223.5, and Boston covered as an 8-point favorite. The Celtics’ 16.7 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Hawks, who had a rate of 12.2.

Of the Hawks’ 27 games, 15 have gone over the total. Atlanta comes into the game with records of 6-21 straight up (SU) and 11-16 against the spread (ATS).

Similarly to Atlanta, Celtics games also have a tendency to finish over the total (55.6 percent). Moreover, Boston is 17-10 SU and 14-13 ATS.

The Hawks’ Collins has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 22 points,11.6 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Marcus Morris has averaged 17 points during that same time frame for the Celtics.

When looking at effective field goal percentage, Boston should have a significant edge. The Celtics defense ranks first in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.498), while the Atlanta offense is ranked 25th in effective field goal percentage (0.505). It will also be a battle of opposite styles as the up-tempo Hawks rank first in possessions per game, while the more methodical Celtics rank 22nd.

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics Betting Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Hawks rank 10 in points in the paint per game (50.2962962962963) while the Celtics rank 28 (41.851851851851855).
  • Boston ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.7) while Atlanta ranks last (22.5).
  • The Celtics rank fifth in assists allowed per game (21.8) while the Hawks rank 28th (27.5).
  • Boston ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (36.6) while Atlanta ranks 25th in three pointers allowed per game (34.0).
  • Boston ranks 2 in blocks allowed per game (3.6666666666666665) while Atlanta ranks 21 (5.444444444444445).
  • The Celtics rank fourth in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Hawks rank 29th (10.4).
  • The Celtics rank 8 in second chance points allowed per game (12.11111111111111) while the Hawks rank 29 (15.74074074074074).
  • Boston averages 46.44444444444444 rebounds per game, which ranks 9 in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 27 in rebounds allowed per game (47.25925925925926).
  • Boston ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (11.0) while Atlanta ranks 28th (16.1).
  • When allowing under 100 points, Boston is 7-2 and Atlanta is 1-2.
  • The Celtics are 17-7 when they score more than 100 points, while the Hawks are 6-15.
  • Boston is 7-4 ATS at home, while Atlanta is 7-7 ATS on the road.
  • The Hawks have 7 overs and 7 unders in 14 road games.
  • Of the Celtics’ 11 home games, they have 6 overs and 5 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Atlanta and Boston have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Celtics are 5-0 ATS over their last five games, while the Hawks are 2-3.
  • During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 124.4 points per game (13.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 102.2 points per game (1.4 below their season average).
  • The Hawks\u2019 average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 9.0, down from 10.2 for the season.