Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Victor TrejosBaseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will play their divisional rival Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will broadcast the matchup and the game is slated to get underway at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Washington (-175) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+165). Bettors are able to gamble on the game’s total with odds listed at -115 for over 7 runs and -105 for under 7. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at -135 for the Phillies +1.5 runs and +115 for the Nationals -1.5 runs.

The Phillies have gone 68-58 SU this year and are 61-64 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 9.1 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, despite having lost 12.1 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Nationals, on the other hand, are 64-63 SU and 61-65 ATS. The team has lost 24.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.5 units ATS. Washington has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has cashed in six of those seven.

Washington games have had an over/under record of 55-68-3 in 2018. The Phillies have also been a good under bet with a total record of 54-66-5.

Aaron Nola is getting the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Nola is 14-3 with a 2.24 ERA and 160 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 with 13 strikeouts and a 1.98 ERA against Washington this year (two starts).

The Nationals will turn to righty Max Scherzer (16-5, 2.11 ERA), who has 234 punchouts and 41 walks as well as a WHIP of 0.89. Scherzer is 0-0 with 15 strikeouts and a 1.42 ERA in one start against Philadelphia this year.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.81 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.09, along with a K/9 of 9.27.

The Phillies offense has slashed .237/.317/.395 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game this year, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera continue to lead Philadelphia’s offense. Hernandez is hitting .257/.363/.366 with 11 home runs, 40 RBIs, 79 runs and 16 stolen bases, while Herrera is hitting .265 with 19 homers, 62 RBIs and 54 runs scored.

For the home team, Washington’s pitching staff has given up 4.1 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.96, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.9. The bullpen has a 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 54 divisional games, Nationals starters have an ERA of 4.47 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.34.

The Washington offense has put up 4.6 runs per contest, including 5.4 per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .302/.349/.525 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon have led the Nationals’ hitters this year. Turner is hitting .268/.335/.409 with 15 home runs, 52 RBIs, 78 runs and 32 stolen bases, and Rendon’s line is .292/.354/.500 with 16 homers, 62 RBIs and 58 runs.

The Phillies have gained 8.8 units and are 47-49 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 40 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Nationals have lost 5.9 units and are 48-43 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 39 of those games, compared to 50 that’ve gone under.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in just two of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • The Philadelphia defense has allowed 15 errors over the last 10 games, compared to seven errors for Washington over its last 10.
  • Each team has hit 12 home runs over its last 10 games.