St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick

Victor TrejosBaseball, MLB

The St. Louis Cardinals are playing host to their division rival Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium. The matchup begins at 7:15 p.m. ET and you can watch the game on either ATPT or FSMW.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds

St. Louis (-130) is hosting this one as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+120) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8.5 runs (-105 for the under and -115 for the over). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at -175 for the Pirates +1.5 runs and +155 for the Cardinals -1.5 runs.

The Cardinals are 74-59 straight up (SU) and 70-62 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 6.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.8 units (ATS). St. Louis has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Pirates are 65-68 SU and have gone 63-69 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 4.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 11.4 units ATS. Pittsburgh is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

Cardinals games have had an over/under record of 61-65-6 in 2018. The Pirates have an over/under record of 61-63-8.

Joe Musgrove will get the start for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Musgrove (5-7, 3.56 ERA) has racked up 73 punchouts in 91 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against St. Louis this year.

The Cardinals are sending righty John Gant (5-5, 3.56 ERA) to the mound. Gant has 72 strikeouts and 38 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.22. Gant is 0-1 with 12 strikeouts and an 8.68 ERA across two starts against Pittsburgh this year.

St. Louis’ pitchers have yielded 4.1 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.36, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.20 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. In 63 games against divisional foes, Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.44 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.29.

The St. Louis offense is putting up 4.6 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .270/.324/.448 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Jose Martinez and outfielder Marcell Ozuna have led the Cardinals’ batters this year. Martinez is hitting .309/.367/.475 with 16 home runs, 75 RBIs and 49 runs scored, while Ozuna is hitting .275 with 16 homers, 69 RBIs and 52 runs.

In the other dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.28 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.99, along with a K/9 of 9.61.

The Pirates offense has slashed .254/.322/.409 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Pittsburgh’s hitters have been paced by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte. Dickerson is slashing .297/.327/.462 with 11 home runs, 46 RBIs and 53 runs scored, while Marte is slashing .274/.321/.455 with 17 homers, 59 RBIs, 67 runs and 29 steals.

The Pirates have gained 3.1 units and are 46-47 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 38 of those games, compared to 48 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cardinals have lost 0.9 units and are 48-45 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 38 of those games, compared to 50 that’ve gone under.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in four of St. Louis’ last seven games.
  • The Pirates have hit five home runs in their last 10 games, including three over their last five.
  • Pittsburgh has averaged 20.2 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 games and 26.6 over its last five.