San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

Victor TrejosBaseball, MLB

The San Diego Padres will look to avoid losing their fourth in a row as they play host to the Arizona Diamondbacks at PETCO Park. Fox Sports Arizona will be showing the matchup and the game gets going at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Odds

Arizona (-130) is favored over San Diego (+120) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at -120 for the over and +100 for the under. The game’s runline odds sit at +115 for picking the Diamondbacks -1.5 runs and -135 for the Padres +1.5 runs.

The Diamondbacks have gone 66-55 SU this year and are 61-60 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle very much this year, gaining 2.8 units for moneyline bettors and 6.1 units ATS. The Padres, on the other hand, are 48-75 SU and 57-65 ATS. They’ve lost 12.6 units for moneyline bettors and 27.9 units ATS.

Padres games have an over/under record of 59-58-5 in 2018. Arizona has an over/under record of 56-59-6.

Clay Buchholz will get the nod for the D-backs. The right-handed Buchholz is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 55 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 4.76 ERA against San Diego this year.

The Padres are planning to start righty Jacob Nix (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who’s got four strikeouts and two walks, as well as a 1.00 WHIP. Nix has yet to face the Diamondbacks this year and did not pitch in the majors last season.

San Diego’s pitching staff has given up 4.7 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 5.07, a WHIP of 1.47 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has a 3.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. In 48 games against divisional foes, Padres starters have an ERA of 5.36 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.35.

The San Diego offense has produced 3.8 runs per contest, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .225/.303/.375 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Eric Hosmer has helped lead the Padres’ offense this year with 11 home runs, 49 RBIs and 53 runs scored.

For the visiting squad, Arizona’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.29 K/9. The bullpen has managed a solid ERA of just 3.14, along with a K/9 of 7.87.

Diamondbacks hitters have slashed .238/.317/.404 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Arizona’s offense has been paced by Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt is slashing .285/.389/.536 with 27 home runs, 65 RBIs and 75 runs scored.

The Padres are coming off of a 3-2 loss against the Angels, while the Diamondbacks just got a 6-4 victory over the Rangers.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Diamondbacks, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has cashed in just two of San Diego’s last seven games.
  • The Diamondbacks have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
  • The Arizona defense has allowed four errors over the last 10 games, compared to nine errors for San Diego over its last 10.
  • The Padres have dropped four of their last five games SU.