San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Free Pick

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Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres are heading east to Nationals Park to square off against the Washington Nationals. Fox Sports San Diego will be airing this NL showdown and the action gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals Odds

Washington (-175) is favored over San Diego (+165) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 7.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Padres +1.5 (-135) and Nationals -1.5 (+115).

The Padres have gone 14-11 SU this year and are 10-15 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 1.0 unit for bettors taking the moneyline in the season’s early going, despite having lost 5.0 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread just once over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Nationals, on the other hand, are 11-12 SU and 10-13 ATS. They’ve lost 5.2 units for moneyline bettors and 4.3 units ATS. Washington has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Washington games have an over/under record of 14-9 so far in 2019. San Diego has an over/under record of 10-14-1.

Southpaw Matt Strahm will get the nod for the visiting Padres. Strahm (0-2, 3.05 ERA) has recorded 13 strikeouts in 20.2 innings so far. He has yet to face the Nationals this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Nationals are turning to righty Max Scherzer (1-3, 4.45 ERA), who has 44 strikeouts and five walks as well as a WHIP of 1.24. Scherzer did not register a start against the Padres in 2018.

San Diego’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 8.39 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.91, along with a K/9 of 10.08.

Padres hitters have slashed .222/.286/.406 on their way to 3.4 runs scored per game this year, including 2.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

San Diego’s offense has been led by shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and outfielder Wil Myers, who’ve collectively belted 11 home runs. Tatis Jr. is hitting .299/.361/.586 with six home runs, 13 RBIs, 12 runs and five stolen bases. Myers (.286/.326/.512) is up to five homers, 11 RBIs and 11 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Washington’s pitching staff has given up 5.1 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have an ERA of 4.13, a WHIP of 1.28 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.8. The bullpen has a 7.07 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.

The Washington hitters are putting up 5.4 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game over its last 10 games and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .272/.337/.434 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Right fielder Adam Eaton and third baseman Anthony Rendon have led the Nationals’ hitters this year. Eaton is hitting .313/.377/.406 with 30 hits, six RBIs and 17 runs scored, while Rendon’s line is .371/.451/.771 with six homers, 18 RBIs and 21 runs scored.

The Padres have lost 1.9 units and are 6-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in eight of those games, as opposed to 11 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Nationals have lost 2.5 units and are 1-3 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in two of those games, compared to two that’ve cashed the under.

Padres at Nationals Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in just two of San Diego’s last seven contests.
  • San Diego has recorded 16.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 15.8 over its last five.
  • The Padres have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Nationals have hit 12 over their last 10.
  • The Padres have a total OPS of .691 this season and an OPS of .673 against right-handed pitchers. The Nationals’ OPS sits at .795 overall and .766 against righties.