Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Free Pick

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Cesar Hernandez and the struggling Philadelphia Phillies will take on their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field in a Wednesday showdown. SportsNet New York will be showing the matchup and the game is slated to get going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds

Las Vegas has Philadelphia (-115) as the favorite over New York (+105). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go under 8.5 runs, then Vegas is putting up -110 odds. Taking the over will return -110 odds. There’s a runline of Phillies -1.5 (+130) and Mets +1.5 (-150) for this matchup.

The Phillies are 12-11 SU and are 10-12 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.1 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going, despite having lost 2.7 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 13-10 SU and 13-9 ATS. The team has gained 0.3 units for moneyline bettors and 2.1 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Mets games have had an over/under record of 15-5-2 so far in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 12-10.

Right-hander Vince Velasquez is the probable starter for the visiting Phillies. Velasquez (0-0, 2.55 ERA) has recorded 16 strikeouts in 17.2 innings so far. This is his first outing against New York this year. He made two starts against the team in 2018, compiling a 0-1 record with a 4.50 ERA and seven strikeouts.

The Mets will put the ball in the left hand of Jason Vargas (1-0, 9.58 ERA), who’s got six strikeouts and seven walks this season as well as a 2.32 WHIP. Vargas only made one start against the Phillies in 2018 (1-0, 3.38 ERA and three strikeouts across 5.1 innings).

Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.79 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.14 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.31, along with a WHIP of 1.45.

Phillies hitters have slashed .249/.342/.424 on their way to 5.1 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Philadelphia’s offense has been sparked by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and catcher J.T. Realmuto. Hernandez is slashing .271/.337/.412 with 23 hits, nine RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Realmuto has a .280 average with 23 hits, three homers, 17 RBIs and 14 runs scored.

For the home team, New York’s pitching staff has given up 5.8 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starters have a 5.09 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.36 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 18 games against divisional foes, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.48 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.10.

The New York offense has produced 5.6 runs per contest, including 5.6 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .240/.319/.421 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Left fielder Jeff McNeil and first baseman Pete Alonso have led the Mets’ batters this year. McNeil is hitting .368/.448/.500 with 28 hits, 11 RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Alonso’s line is .310/.408/.690 with eight homers, 21 RBIs and 18 runs.

The Phillies have lost 2.6 units and are 1-3 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in two of those games, as opposed to two that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 0.2 units and are 10-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 11 of those games, as opposed to five that’ve cashed the under.

Phillies at Mets MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in just two of New York’s last seven games.
  • The Phillies have lost five of their last six games SU.
  • Philadelphia fielders have seven errors over the last five outin, compared to four errors for New York over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 13 over their last 10.
  • The Phillies have an OPS of .766 this season, including an OPS of .765 against left-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS sits at .781 overall and .887 against southpaws.