Michael Conforto and the New York Mets will head south to square off against their division rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. The game gets underway 7:20 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will be televising the action.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Odds
Sportsbooks have Atlanta (-130) as the favorite over New York (+120). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go below 9 runs scored, then Vegas is offering -120 odds to play the under. Taking the over give you even money (+100). There’s a runline of Mets +1.5 (-175) and Braves -1.5 (+155) for this matchup.
The Mets have gone 7-4 SU this year and are 6-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.5 units for moneyline bettors in this young season and 1.6 units ATS. New York is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS. They’ve gained 2.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.6 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.
Braves games have an over/under record of 5-5-1 thus far in 2019. Mets games have gone over eight times, gone under two times and pushed on zero occasions.
Steven Matz (0-0, 0.87 ERA) is projected to get the nod for the visiting Mets. The left-handed Matz recorded 152 strikeouts over 154 innings last year (30 starts) while finishing the season 5-11 overall with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
The Braves are turning to righty Kevin Gausman (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who started 31 games last year and finished the season 10-11 overall with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.
New York’s pitchers have allowed 6.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.43 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10.18 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 6.51, along with a K-per-9 of 10.13.
Mets hitters have slashed .266/.353/.444 on their way to 6.3 runs scored per game in 2019, including over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Outfielder Michael Conforto and first baseman Pete Alonso have led New York’s hitters. Conforto is hitting .372/.460/.674 with 16 hits, eight RBIs and 12 runs scored, while Alonso has a .366 average with 15 hits, five homers, 15 RBIs and nine runs scored.
For the home team, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 3.22, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.5. The bullpen has a 5.54 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In six divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.86 and the bullpen’s ERA is 7.85.
Atlanta’s hitters are putting up 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .248/.337/.424 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.
First baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies have led the Braves’ hitters this year. Freeman is hitting .400/.520/.575 with 16 hits, six RBIs and 10 runs scored, and the line for Albies stands at .364/.429/.500 with 16 hits, two RBIs and five runs.
The Mets have lost 0.7 units and are 3-4 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in five of those games, compared to two that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 3.1 units and are 2-1 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in two of those games, compared to one that’ve gone under.
Mets vs. Braves Free MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- New York has recorded 19 extra-base hits over its last five games. Atlanta has 14 XBH over its last five.
- The Braves have won seven of their last eight games SU.
- New York fielders have seven errors over the last 10 games, compared to only two errors for Atlanta over its last 10.
- The Mets have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.
- The Mets have a total OPS of .798 this season and an OPS of .813 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .808 overall and .773 against righties.
