Starlin Castro and the slumping Miami Marlins will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in a Thursday night game. The first pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio will televise this NL matchup.
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Las Vegas has Miami (+150) as the underdog to Cincinnati (-160). The total currently stands at 8.5 runs and bettors can play the over for -115 and the under for -105. This game currently has a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-145) and Reds -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins have gone only 3-9 SU this year and are 5-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.8 units for moneyline bettors through the early part of the season and 2.5 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 3-8 SU and 5-5 ATS. The team has lost 6.7 units for moneyline bettors and 0.5 units ATS. Cincinnati has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.
Cincinnati games have a 3-7 over/under record so far in 2019. Marlins games have gone over six times, gone under four times and pushed on one occasion.
Pablo Lopez (1-1, 6.10 ERA) is getting the start for the visiting Marlins. The right-handed Lopez started 10 games last year while finishing the season 2-4 overall with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.
The Reds are turning to righty Sonny Gray (0-2, 2.89 ERA), who recorded 123 strikeouts across 130 innings last year (23 starts), while finishing the season 11-9 overall with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 8.45 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.77, along with a K/9 of 10.38.
The Marlins offense has slashed .218/.282/.351 on its way to 2.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 1.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Martin Prado have led Miami’s hitters. Castro is slashing .250/.265/.396 with 12 hits, four RBIs and six runs scored, while Prado has a .440 average with 11 hits, two RBIs and three runs scored.
In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 3.2 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have an ERA of 2.91, a WHIP of 1.16 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 10.3. The bullpen has a 3.35 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 8.4 K/9.
The Cincinnati hitters have produced 3.4 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .228/.298/.494 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.
Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and catcher Tucker Barnhart have led the Reds’ hitters so far. Suarez is hitting .242/.375/.485 with eight hits, four RBIs and three runs scored, while Barnhart’s line is .308/.455/.385 with eight hits, zero RBIs and four runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 0.9 units and are 2-4 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in two of those games, compared to three that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 6.7 units and are 5-5 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in three of those games, compared to seven that went under the total.
Marlins vs. Reds MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER
Betting Trends
- The under has cashed in three of Miami’s last seven games.
- The Marlins have dropped seven of their last eight games SU.
- Cincinnati has recorded 15.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.0 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
- The Marlins have an OPS of .632 this season and an OPS of .579 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS sits at .639 overall and .590 against righties.
