Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres Free Preview

Victor TrejosBaseball, MLB

The San Diego Padres will make a road trip to Milwaukee to square off against the Brewers at Miller Park. The game gets underway 2:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will televise this NL showdown.

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Milwaukee (-160) is favored over San Diego (+150) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 9 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at -145 for the Padres +1.5 runs and +125 for the Brewers -1.5.

The Brewers are 65-50 straight up (SU) and 60-56 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 11.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.7 units (ATS). Milwaukee has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Padres have gone 44-70 SU this year and are 54-61 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 12.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 26.1 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.

Milwaukee games have a 53-59-4 over/under record in 2018. The Padres have an over/under record of 54-56-5.

Right-hander Tyson Ross will get the nod for San Diego. Ross is 6-9 with a 4.45 ERA and 107 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Brewers will send righty Junior Guerra (6-7, 3.42 ERA) to the mound. Guerra has 111 strikeouts and 46 walks to his name, as well as a 1.26 WHIP. Guerra only made one start against the Padres in 2017 (0-0, 4.50 ERA and three strikeouts across six innings).

As a unit, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has yielded 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 3.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 10.2 K/9.

The Milwaukee hitters have produced 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game over its last 10 games and 5.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .240/.314/.469 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain have led the Brewers’ batters this year. Yelich is slashing .326/.387/.542 with 17 home runs, 59 RBIs, 78 runs and 14 stolen bases, while Cain’s line is .293/.389/.416 with eight homers, 30 RBIs, 55 runs and 19 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, San Diego’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starters own a 5.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 7.55 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.53, along with a WHIP of 1.48 and a K-per-9 of 9.63.

The Padres offense has slashed .233/.298/.369 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game this year, including 4.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

San Diego’s offense has been sparked by first baseman Eric Hosmer and shortstop Freddy Galvis. Hosmer is hitting .254/.322/.389 with 10 home runs, 46 RBIs and 49 runs scored, while Galvis is slashing .237/.294/.346 with six homers, 42 RBIs and 37 runs scored.

The Padres have lost 3.4 units and are 41-38 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 35 of those games, compared to 41 that’ve hit the under against righty starters.

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • San Diego has tallied 18 extra-base hits over its last five games. Milwaukee has 20 XBH over its last five.
  • San Diego has posted 21.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 24.4 over its last five.
  • The Padres have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.