The Miami Marlins will face their division rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will be televising the matchup and the opening pitch will be at 1:35 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Miami (+220) is the underdog to Philadelphia (-240) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the current runline odds sitting at Marlins +1.5 runs (+100) and Phillies -1.5 runs (-120).
The Marlins have gone 46-66 SU this year and are 58-53 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle a whole lot this year, gaining 2.5 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 7.7 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 62-48 SU and 52-57 ATS. The teams gained 12.7 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 12.9 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven.
Phillies games have an over/under record of 47-57-5 in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 57-52-2.
The southpaw Wei-Yin Chen is projected to start for the visiting Marlins. Chen is 3-8 with a 5.86 ERA and 62 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA against Philadelphia this year.
The Phillies are turning to righty Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.35 ERA), who has 142 strikeouts and 38 walks as well as a WHIP of 0.97. Nola is 1-1 with 12 strikeouts and a 1.35 ERA over two starts against Miami this year.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.1 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starters have an ERA of 3.76, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.9. The bullpen has a 3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. In 42 games against NL East opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.42 and the bullpens ERA is 4.24.
Philadelphia’s hitters have produced 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .263/.347/.419 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
The Phillies batters have been led by right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Herrera is slashing .275/.330/.460 with 19 home runs, 58 RBIs and 53 runs scored, and Hernandez’s line is .262/.369/.371 with nine homers, 37 RBIs, 69 runs and 14 stolen bases.
In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.61 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 7.70 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.13, along with a WHIP of 1.34.
The Marlins offense has slashed .243/.310/.364 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over the teams last five contests (0-5 SU).
Miami’s hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .289/.335/.403 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 63 runs scored, while Anderson (.284/.366/.420) is up to nine homers, 52 RBIs and 63 runs scored.
The Marlins have gained 4.7 units and are 40-41 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 41 of those games, compared to 38 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 3.4 units and are 13-12 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in 11 of those games, as opposed to 13 which went under the total.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Free MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The over has hit in only two of Miami’s last seven games.
- Philadelphia has recorded 22.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23.2 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
