Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Free Pick

Victor TrejosBaseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will square off against the Washington Nationals at Marlins Park. The matchup will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Mid-Atlantic Sports Network to catch the game.

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Miami (+160) is coming into this one as the underdog against Washington (-170) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 8 runs (-125 for the under and +105 for the over). Runline odds sit at -120 for betting the Nationals -1.5 runs and +100 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Marlins are 56-47 against the spread (ATS), but only 44-59 straight up (SU). The team’s gained 5.6 units for moneyline bettors while earning 1.9 units (ATS). Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in five of those seven. The Nationals have gone 50-51 SU this year and are 46-54 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 20.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.2 units ATS. Washington is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Marlins games have an over/under record of 54-47-2 in 2018. Washington has been a strong under bet with a total record of 40-58-2.

Stephen Strasburg will get the nod for the visiting Nationals. The right-handed Strasburg (6-7, 3.90 ERA) has racked up 101 strikeouts in 85.1 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Miami this year.

The Marlins are handing the ball to righty Dan Straily (4-4, 4.02 ERA), who has 63 strikeouts and 37 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.31. Straily is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in one start against Washington this year.

As a unit, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 5.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have a 4.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.00 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. In 34 games against NL East foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.44 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.83.

Miami’s offense has produced 3.9 runs per outing, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .231/.301/.373 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Marlins’ hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .287/.333/.406 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 60 runs scored, and Anderson is batting .285 with eight homers, 49 RBIs and 59 runs.

For the visiting squad, Washington’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 9.23 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.69, along with a K-per-9 of 8.69.

Nationals hitters have slashed .243/.323/.402 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon continue to lead Washington’s hitters. Turner is slashing .261/.335/.397 with 12 home runs, 40 RBIs, 56 runs and 22 stolen bases, while Rendon is slashing .284/.347/.514 with 15 homers, 47 RBIs and 47 runs scored.

The Nationals have lost 5.8 units and are 36-36 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 28 of those games, as opposed to 43 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 7.3 units and are 39-37 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 40 of those games, compared to 34 that went under the total.

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Nationals, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has hit in only two of Miami’s last seven games.
  • The Nationals have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
  • Miami has averaged 20.0 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 contests and 20.2 over its last five.