Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Free Preview

Victor TrejosBaseball, MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates are facing off against the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park. The action starts at 4:05 p.m. ET and fans can catch it on ATPT and FSOH.

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Cincinnati (+110) is entering this one as the underdog against Pittsburgh (-120) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at 8.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total stand at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Runline odds stand at -190 for taking the Reds +1.5 runs and +165 for the Pirates -1.5 runs.

The Pirates are 34-35 straight up (SU) and 30-38 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.6 units (ATS). Pittsburgh has covered the spread only twice in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, have gone 25-44 SU this year and are 36-32 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 13.0 units for moneyline gamblers and 6.2 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Pirates games have an over/under record of 33-29-6 thus far in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 32-34-2.

Luis Castillo will get the nod for the visiting Reds. The right-handed Castillo is 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA and 74 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with eight strikeouts and a 4.91 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (two starts).

The Pirates will turn to righty Ivan Nova (3-5, 4.68 ERA), who has 55 strikeouts and 12 walks to his credit as well as a WHIP of 1.32. Nova is 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has given up 4.6 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have a 4.10 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.58 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. In 30 games against NL Central opponents, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.24 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.60.

The Pittsburgh offense is putting up 4.6 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .253/.356/.401 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Pirates’ offense has been led by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte. Dickerson is slashing .306/.341/.459 with five home runs, 32 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Marte is hitting .287 with eight homers, 31 RBIs, 35 runs and 13 stolen bases.

For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.57 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 7.29 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.88, along with a WHIP of 1.51 and a K/9 of 8.13.

Reds hitters have slashed .250/.330/.385 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game this year, including 3.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Cincinnati’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Scooter Gennett and first baseman Joey Votto, who collectively have swatted 18 home runs. Gennett is slashing .337/.373/.544 with 12 home runs, 48 RBIs and 35 runs scored. Votto (.303/.426/.443) has produced six homers, 30 RBIs and 34 runs scored.

The Reds have lost 11.8 units and are 26-23 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 21 of those games, compared to 27 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Pirates have lost 0.5 units and are 25-27 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 22 of those games, compared to 24 that went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in four of Cincinnati’s last seven outings.
  • The Reds have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit five over their last 10.
  • Pittsburgh has recorded 20.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.0 over its last five.