Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Free Pick

betdsiBaseball, MLB

The Boston Red Sox are set to take on the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. New England Sports Network will televise this AL showdown and the action gets underway at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Boston (+140) as the underdog to Seattle (-150). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at +100 for over 7.5 runs and -120 for under 7.5. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at Red Sox +1.5 runs (-155) and Mariners -1.5 runs (+135).

The Red Sox are 48-22 SU and are 39-30 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 13.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 8.4 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven. The Mariners, on the other hand, are 44-25 SU and 36-32 ATS. They’ve gained 17.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.7 units ATS. Seattle has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.

Mariners games have an over/under record of 36-31-1 so far in 2018. Boston has an over/under record of 32-35-2.

Right-hander Rick Porcello is projected to start for Boston. Porcello is 8-3 with a 3.54 ERA and 80 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Mariners this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 2.84 ERA and six strikeouts over 6.1 innings).

The Mariners will put the ball in the left hand of James Paxton (6-1, 3.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), who has 111 punchouts and 25 walks this season. Paxton only made one start against the Red Sox in 2017 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts across seven innings).

As a unit, Seattle’s pitching staff has yielded 4.0 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.22 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has a 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 10.2 K/9.

Seattle’s hitters are putting up 4.4 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .298/.339/.578 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

Shortstop Jean Segura and outfielder Dee Gordon have led the Mariners’ offense this year. Segura is hitting .342/.363/.482 with five home runs, 42 RBIs, 51 runs and 14 stolen bases, and Gordon’s line is .286/.308/.361 with 69 hits, 15 RBIs, 29 runs and 19 stolen bases.

For the visitors, Boston’s pitching staff allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.65 K/9. The bullpen has logged a solid ERA of just 2.95, along with a K/9 of 9.75.

The Red Sox offense has slashed .263/.332/.456 on its way to 5.1 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Boston’s offensive production has been led by J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi, who’ve collectively blasted 34 home runs. Martinez is slashing .317/.388/.651 with 22 home runs, 55 RBIs and 44 runs scored, while Benintendi (.297/.385/.547) has produced 12 homers, 46 RBIs, 49 runs and 11 stolen bases.

The Red Sox have lost 1.7 units and are 6-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mariners have netted 16.8 units and are 24-21 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 26 of those games, compared to 19 which went under the total.

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mariners, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends,

  • Boston has logged 11 extra-base hits over its last five games. Seattle has 19 XBH over its last five.
  • Boston has posted 19.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 19.4 over its last five.
  • The Red Sox have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mariners have hit 22 over their last 10.