Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Free Pick

Victor TrejosBaseball, MLB

The Boston Red Sox will be taking on the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. This AL showdown can be viewed across the country on Fox and the game gets underway 8:15 p.m. ET.

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Odds

Seattle (+105) is coming into this one as the underdog to Boston (-115) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 8.5 runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds standing at Red Sox -1.5 runs (+130) and Mariners +1.5 runs (-150).

The Mariners are 45-25 straight up (SU) and 37-32 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 16.6 units for moneyline bettors and 3.7 units (ATS). Seattle has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Red Sox have gone 48-23 SU this year and are 39-31 ATS. In total, the team’s accumulated 14.8 units for moneyline bettors and 7.4 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.

Mariners games have had an over/under record of 36-32-1 so far in 2018. The Red Sox have an over/under record of 32-36-2.

Steven Wright will get the nod for the visiting Red Sox. The right-handed Wright is 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 25 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Mariners this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Mariners will put the ball in the left hand of Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 3.00 ERA), who has 43 strikeouts and 14 walks this season as well as a 1.22 WHIP. LeBlanc did not record a start against the Red Sox in 2017.

Seattle’s pitching staff has allowed 4.1 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.01, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has a 3.55 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10.0 K/9.

The Seattle hitters are putting up 4.4 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 5.4 per game over their last five. The team has hit .319/.362/.589 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Mariners’ offense has been led by shortstop Jean Segura and outfielder Dee Gordon. Segura is slashing .344/.365/.493 with six home runs, 43 RBIs, 52 runs and 14 stolen bases, while Gordon’s line sits at .285/.306/.358 with 70 hits, 15 RBIs, 30 runs and 19 stolen bases.

For the visiting squad, Boston’s pitchers have allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.67 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.71 K/9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.04, along with a K/9 of 9.74.

Red Sox hitters have slashed .262/.332/.454 on their way to 5.1 runs scored per game this year, including 3.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi continue to lead Boston’s hitters. Martinez is slashing .320/.392/.648 with 22 home runs, 55 RBIs and 45 runs scored, while Benintendi is hitting .296/.383/.545 with 12 homers, 46 RBIs, 49 runs and 11 steals.

The Red Sox have lost 1.7 units and are 6-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mariners have netted 16.8 units and are 24-21 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 26 of those games, compared to 19 that’ve cashed the under.

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Mariners, ATS Winner – Mariners, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has cashed in only two of Seattle’s last seven games.
  • The Mariners have won five of their last six games SU.
  • The Boston defense has allowed two errors over its last five games, compared to seven errors for Seattle over its last five.
  • The Red Sox have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.