The Auburn Tigers (+25) aren’t traveling far to face their SEC nemesis top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Kickoff for this critical matchup is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS.
Betting Preview: Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn is the noticeable underdog here and is currently receiving 25 points from bookmakers. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 52 points, and there will probably be some solid live betting possibilities while this contest is taking place.
This game’s line opened at -24, while the total has yet to change after it was initially placed at 52.
The hapless Tigers have lost 13.0 units so far in 2018 and are 5-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 3-8.
The Crimson Tide are up 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 7-4 ATS and seven of their games have gone over the total.
The perfect Tigers are 7-4 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against conference opponents. The Crimson Tide are 11-0 SU overall and 7-0 SU in conference play.
The Tigers are coming off a resounding 53-0 win over Liberty last week. Jarrett Stidham completed 12-of-18 passes for just 178 yards and two touchdowns. Kam Martin (116 yards on 17 rush attempts) and Asa Martin (44 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack while Seth Williams (five receptions, 109 yards, one TD) and Ryan Davis (four catches, 40 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
Alabama is coming off of a 50-17 win over Citadel. Tua Tagovailoa completed 18-of-22 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Damien Harris (83 yards on seven rush attempts) led the running game as Henry Ruggs III (six receptions, 114 yards) and Jerry Jeudy (six catches, 77 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Auburn’s run the ball on 56.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Alabama has a rush percentage of 58.7 percent. The Tigers have produced 167.2 rush yards/game (including 118.1 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 21 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Tide are totaling 213.5 rush yards per game (198.6 in conference) and have 27 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Tide should hold an advantage when it comes to RB efficiency. Their backfield has produced 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Tigers have registered 4.4 yards per carry while allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents.
The Tigers offense has tallied 214.6 yards/game through the air overall (216.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Tide have recorded 328.0 pass yards per outing (326 in the SEC) and have 38 total pass scores.
Defensively, Auburn has allowed opponents to run for an average of 142.3 yards and throw for 208.4 yards per game. The Alabama defense has given up 169.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 112.5 yards per game on the ground. The Tide are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.60 to opponents, while the Tigers have given up a 4.49 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Stidham is up to 2,131 yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 172-of-282 attempts with 12 passing scores and four interceptions. Stidham has a 6.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.80 over the last two outings.
Seth Williams, Kam Martin and Ryan Davis have combined for 372 yards from scrimmage over the last two outings.
Tua Tagovailoa has completed 150-of-216 passes for 2,701 yards, 30 TDs and one INT for Alabama. His ANY/A stands at 14.66 for the season and 10.70 over his past two games.
We’re thinking the Tide will control the game’s pace by feeding their ball-carriers early and often. In addition to Irv Smith Jr. (516 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs this season), Damien Harris (625 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Josh Jacobs (287 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have really been focal points in the Alabama offense.
These two schools met last year with the final result being a 26-14 win for Auburn.
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Free Prediction
SU Winner: Alabama, ATS Winner: Auburn, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Alabama offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Auburn has lost eight.
- The Alabama D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 37 times this year. Auburn has produced 34 sacks.
- As a team, Auburn has produced 4.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its last two.
- Alabama has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.9 over its last two.
- In its last three contests, Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Auburn’s previous game was set at 65.5. The under cashed in the team’s 53-0 win over Liberty.
- In its last three matchups, Auburn is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Alabama’s previous outing going into it was 62.5. The over cashed in the team’s 50-17 victory over Citadel.
- Auburn has won four of its last five games SU, with a November 10th defeat to Georgia representing the only loss over that span.
