Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction 10/29/19

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The Atlanta Hawks (2-1), 7.5-point underdogs, will be at AmericanAirlines Arena to go head-to-head against the Miami Heat (2-1) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 224.5 points and it will air on NBATV at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, October 29, 2019.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

Both teams fell in their last contest. The Heat (7-point underdogs) were defeated by the Minnesota Timberwolves, 116-109, while the Hawks (2-point underdogs) fell to the Philadelphia 76ers, 105-103. The Miami game finished 0.5 points over the projected point total of 224.5, while the Atlanta game went 8 points under the projected point total of 216.

Atlanta had a better free throw rate (0.262 vs. 0.227) while Miami was lights out from beyond the arc (15-36; 41.7 percent). Miami received a boost from Justise Winslow, who had 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists. Trae Young, meanwhile played a pivotal role for Atlanta with 25 points and nine assists.

The Hawks edged out the Heat in this series last year, emerging victorious in three out of four contests. In the most recent contest, Miami won 114-113. Miami had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.614 vs. 0.511). Atlanta, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.7 vs. 21.2).

Since last season, the Hawks have had records of 31-54 straight up (SU) and 42-40-2 against the spread (ATS). Atlanta games have had a slight tendency to go under the O/U total since last season (53.6 percent).

The Heat, meanwhile, are 41-44 SU and 44-41-5 ATS since last season. Vegas has also been highly precise when predicting totals of Miami games over that same time frame with an even split between overs and unders.

Looking at effective field goal percentage, Miami figures to have a significant edge. Dating back to last season, the Heat defense ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.509), while the Atlanta offense ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage (0.522). It will also be a battle of opposite tempos as the fast-breaking Hawks rank first in possessions per game, while the more methodical Heat rank 22nd.

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat ATS Pick

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Hawks, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2018-Present):

  • The Heat average 46.4 rebounds per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Hawks rank 21st in rebounds allowed per game (46.0).
  • Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (23.3) while Atlanta ranks last (26.6).
  • The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Hawks rank 24th in blocks allowed per game (5.5).
  • Miami ranks 12th in steals per game (7.6) while Atlanta ranks last in steals allowed per game (9.8).
  • Miami ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (42.6) while Atlanta ranks 17th (49.2).
  • The Heat rank seventh in second chance points per game (14.1) while the Hawks rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (14.6).
  • The Hawks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (36.7) while the Heat rank 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (33.5).
  • Atlanta averages 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 11th in the league. Miami ranks 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2).
  • Atlanta ranks ninth in fast break points per game (15.1) while Miami ranks last (9.9).
  • In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Miami is 22-3 and Atlanta is 4-2.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Hawks are 30-44 and the Heat are 37-24.