The Atlanta Hawks (3-6) will travel to the Pepsi Center to take on the Denver Nuggets (7-2). The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 12, 2019, and will air on Altitude 2 Sports.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last outing. The Nuggets (4-point favorites) beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 100-98, while the Hawks (9-point underdogs) were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers, 124-113. The Denver game went 20.5 points under the projected point total of 218.5, while the Atlanta game went 11 points over the projected point total of 226.
The Nuggets held the Timberwolves to an effective field goal percentage of 0.381 (below their season average of 0.504) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.9 (above their season average of 21.9). Atlanta, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (12.2 vs. 12.8). Denver’s Nikola Jokic had a good game, putting up 20 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Atlanta, meanwhile, rallied around Trae Young, who had 35 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds.
This was a highly competitive series last year, as the teams split their two games last season. The Hawks won the last matchup 106-98. Atlanta’s effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Denver. The Hawks had a rate of 0.511 while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.418.
Vegas is known to set the total high when the Hawks are playing, as 77.8 percent of their contests have ended under the O/U total. Atlanta holds records of 3-6 straight up (SU) and 4-5 against the spread (ATS).
Games involving the Nuggets also have a tendency to go under the total (88.9 percent). Denver has an excellent 7-2 SU record, but they have a difficult time covering the spread (3-5-1 ATS).
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Denver figures to have a significant edge. Dating back to last season, the Nuggets defense ranks fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.514), while the Atlanta offense ranks 22nd in effective field goal percentage (0.521).
Atlanta Hawks vs. Denver Nuggets Free Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Hawks, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes (2018-Present):
- Atlanta ranks third in points in the paint per game (51.4) while Denver ranks 23rd (51.4).
- The Hawks average 8.3 steals per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 16th in steals allowed per game (7.2).
- Denver ranks 14th in blocks per game (4.5) while Atlanta ranks 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.7).
- Atlanta ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (16.0) while Denver ranks 16th (12.0).
- The Nuggets rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while the Hawks rank 22nd (20.8).
- The Nuggets rank fifth in second chance points allowed per game (12.3) while the Hawks rank 16th (14.5).
- Atlanta ranks 15th in three pointers attempted per game (36.5) while Denver ranks 27th (30.6).
- Denver is 33-3 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Atlanta is 4-2.
- The Nuggets are 62-26 when they score above 100 points, while the Hawks are 31-46.
