Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat ATS Prediction 03/04/19

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The Atlanta Hawks (22-42) will be at AmericanAirlines Arena to challenge the Miami Heat (28-34) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 4, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

Both teams covered as favorites in their last matchup. The Heat (2-point favorites) defeated the Brooklyn Nets 117-88, while the Hawks (1-point favorites) beat the Chicago Bulls 123-118. The Miami game went 18 points under the projected point total of 223, while the Atlanta game finished 11 points over the projected point total of 230.

Atlanta dominated every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.0 (above their season average of 24.8) and a free throw rate of 0.202 (above their season average of 0.197). For those same stats, Chicago recorded marks of 20.5 and 0.174, respectively. Miami, meanwhile, played a nearly flawless game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 27.5 (above their season average of 25.4) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.567 (above their season average of 0.515). Brooklyn put up marks of 13.2 and 0.403, respectively, for those same stats. Kelly Olynyk fueled Miami with 25 points and six rebounds. Alex Len, meanwhile led the way for Atlanta, finishing with 28 points and nine rebounds.

In their three contests this year, the Hawks have won all three. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 188 points, well under the projected point total of 218.5. Atlanta won 106-82, covering as a 6.5-point underdog. The Hawks’ 32.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Heat, who had a mark of 21.1. Despite the loss, Bam Adebayo had a stellar game with 12 points and six rebounds.

Hawks games have typically gone over the total (55.6 percent). Atlanta holds records of 22-42 straight up (SU) and 29-34 against the spread (ATS).

Just over half of Heat games have finished over the projected point total. Additionally, Miami owns records of 28-34 SU and 32-29-1 ATS.

The offensive glass should be a huge advantage for Miami in this contest. The Heat currently rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (25.4 percent), while Atlanta ranks 21st in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent). It will also be a matchup of opposite styles as the fast-breaking Hawks rank first in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Heat rank 26th.

Hawks at Heat Odds Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while the Hawks rank 16th (49.4).
  • Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (22.8) while Atlanta ranks last (27.3).
  • The Heat average 32.7 three pointers per game, which ranks 13th in the league. The Hawks rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (34.0).
  • Atlanta ranks 12th in points off turnovers (17.0 per game) while Miami ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed (18.0 per game).
  • Miami ranks 15th in steals allowed per game (7.7) while Atlanta ranks 28th (10.3).
  • The Heat average 14.3 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Hawks rank 26th in second chance points allowed per game (14.5).
  • The Heat average 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Hawks rank 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.5).
  • Miami averages 46.3 rebounds per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 17th in rebounds allowed per game (45.1).
  • Atlanta ranks ninth in fast break points per game (15.3) while Miami ranks 28th (9.7).
  • Atlanta is 3-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 16-3.
  • The Hawks are 21-34 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 26-18.
  • Atlanta is 18-15 ATS on the road, while Miami is 12-18-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 18 of the Hawks’ 33 road games, while 17 of the Heat’s 31 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Hawks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Atlanta has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Miami has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 129.2 points per game (16.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 128.0 points per game (9.0 above their season average).
  • The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 0.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.6 points.