Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 17 Free Pick

Posts AdminArticles, Football, NFL

In the final iteration of the 2018 regular season, the Atlanta Falcons are ready to pay a visit to their NFC South nemesis Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. This early afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.

Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 49.5 points. There will probably be some good in-game betting opportunities while this contest is taking place.

Odds have shifted from when they were first posted. The line opened at 2 and the game’s total has not moved after being initially posted at 49.5.

The underwhelming Falcons are down 6.2 units so far and 5-10 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U mark of 8-7.

The Buccaneers have lost 2.8 units this season. The team is 6-7-2 ATS and also owns an O/U record of 8-7.

The Falcons have gone 6-9 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are 5-10 SU overall and 2-3 SU against divisional foes.

Tampa Bay enters this contest on a zero-game winning streak while Atlanta has lost each of its last zero. The Falcons are on the upswing after a 24-10 win over Carolina last week. The Falcons defense allowed the Panthers to pass for 312 yards while rushing for 141 yards. On the offensive side of the ball, Matt Ryan completed 15-of-26 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns. Tevin Coleman (51 rushing yards on 10 attempts) and Brian Hill (115 yards on eight carries) propelled the running attack while Mohamed Sanu (five receptions, 81 yards, one TD) and Julio Jones (four catches, 28 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

In Week 16, Dallas got the victory against this Tampa Bay team by a score of 27-20. Jameis Winston completed 34-of-48 passes for 336 yards and one touchdown. Peyton Barber (43 rushing yards on 17 attempts) handled the running attack as Adam Humphries (10 receptions, 79 yards) and Jacquizz Rodgers (seven catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Atlanta has run the ball on 35.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tampa Bay has a rush percentage of 38.5 percent. The Falcons have rushed for 97.6 yards/game (including 101.6 per game against South opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bucs are putting up 95.4 rushing yards per game (103.0 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.

The Falcons offense has logged 304.4 yards/game through the air overall (323.4 per game against conference opposition) and has 33 passing scores so far. The Bucs have recorded 334.2 pass yards per contest (303 against NFC competition) and have 32 total pass TDs.

Atlanta has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 127.1 yards and throw for 270.9 yards per game. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed 266.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 124.9 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.42 to opposing QBs, while the Bucs have given up a 7.66 ANY/A.

Offensively, Ryan is already up to 4,315 passing yards this season, and has completed 70 percent of his 528 attempts with 31 passing scores and only six interceptions. Ryan’s got a 7.73 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.51 over the last two games.

Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley have collectively accounted for 479 total yards and three touchdowns as a trio over the last two outings.

For the home team, Jameis Winston has managed to complete 209-of-318 passes for 2,490 yards, 15 TDs and 12 INTs. Winston’s ANY/A sits at 6.12 for the year and 5.86 over his past two outings.

Mike Evans (1,297 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns on the year), Peyton Barber (720 rush yards, four rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Adam Humphries (727 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) have combined for 458 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns over the past two games.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick

SU Winner: Falcons, ATS Winner: Falcons, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Atlanta’s last game was set at 46. The under cashed in the team’s 24-10 victory over Carolina.
  • As a team, Atlanta has averaged 7.2 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 8.5 over its last two.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.3 over its past two.
  • Tampa Bay has lost nine fumbles this season while Atlanta has let 11 get away.
  • Over its last three matchups, Atlanta is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Tampa Bay’s last outing was 48. The under cashed in that 27-20 defeat to Dallas.
  • In its last three games, Tampa Bay is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Falcons offense has produced nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Buccaneers have accounted for 13 such plays.
  • The Atlanta defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Tampa Bay has given up five such plays.
  • The Atlanta offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Tampa Bay has created five such runs.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Buccaneers have given up 15 such runs.
  • The Tampa Bay defensive unit has produced 37 sacks on the year while Atlanta has 36.