Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Week 10 Free Betting Prediction

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The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints will go head-to-head on the dome at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Fans are able to catch the action live on FOX and this early afternoon matchup is scheduled to get going at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

In this Sunday NFC game, New Orleans is projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 13 points. The Falcons are also receiving +475 moneyline odds while the Saints are -725. This NFC tilt should provide several decent live betting scenarios, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 51.5 points.

With the game’s O/U initially placed at 50.5, the over has received the majority of the early sharp action.

The underwhelming Falcons are 1-6-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 7.0 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-5.

The Saints have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 7.7 units. They’re 6-2 ATS and have an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Falcons are only 1-7 straight up (SU) and the team has yet to face any NFC South opponents this year. The Saints are 7-1 SU overall and 1-0 SU versus divisional foes.

Atlanta enters this matchup on a six-game winning streak while New Orleans has lost its last six in a row. The Falcons dropped one to Seattle 27-20 in a Week 8 matchup where Matt Schaub completed 39-of-52 passes for 460 yards, as well as one score and a pick. Devonta Freeman (only 39 yards on 13 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground attack in the loss while Julio Jones (10 receptions, 152 yards) and Freeman (eight catches, 63 yards) shared the receiving duties.

New Orleans is coming off of a big 31-9 win over Arizona back in Week 8. The team’s defensive unit held its territory in the victory, restricting the Cardinals to only 220 passing yards and 40 yards on the ground. Christian Kirk was a bright spot in the loss for Arizona, accounting for 79 yards on eight catches. For New Orleans, Drew Brees completed 34-of-43 passes for 373 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Latavius Murray (102 yards on 21 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the ground game in the win as Michael Thomas (11 receptions, 112 yards, one TD) and Murray (nine catches, 55 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack.

Atlanta’s run the ball on 30.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Orleans has a rush percentage of 42.4 percent. The Falcons have produced 68.5 rush yards/game (including 0 per game against South opponents) and have three scores via handoffs this year. The Saints are totaling 114.3 rush yards per game (112 in conference) and have five total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then the Saints ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, since their offensive line has yielded just 12 sacks while the D-line has logged 24 sacks. The Falcons offensive line has allowed 21 sacks and their defense has generated only seven sacks.

The Falcons offense has averaged a stout 336.9 yards in the air overall (0 per game against conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Saints have recorded 272.8 pass yards per contest (345 against NFC competition) and have 14 total pass scores.

Defensively, Atlanta has allowed 118.4 rush yards and 266.1 pass yards per game. The New Orleans defense has allowed 252.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 84.3 yards per game on the ground. The Saints are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.22 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up an ugly 9.26 ANY/A.

Offensively, Schaub has amassed 460 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 75 percent of his 52 attempts with one scores through the air and one interception. He has a 7.70 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.35 over the last two games.

Drew Brees has completed 69-of-91 passes for 781 yards, five TDs and three INTs for New Orleans. His ANY/A stands at 8.02 for the year and 9.02 over his last two outings.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints NFL Pick

SU Winner: Saints, ATS Winner: Falcons, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • The New Orleans offense has lost one fumble this season while Atlanta has lost six.
  • The New Orleans defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times this year. Atlanta has recorded just seven sacks.
  • Atlanta, as a team, has produced 3.7 yards per carry over its past three outings and 3.3 over its last two.
  • New Orleans has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.5 over its last two.
  • In its last three contests, New Orleans is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Atlanta’s last game was set at 48.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-20 loss to Seattle.
  • In its last three matches, Atlanta is 0-2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for New Orleans’ last game was set at 48. The under cashed in the 31-9 win over Arizona.