Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: Week 16 Free Betting Pick

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The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers will collide on the grass at Bank of America Stadium. FOX is scheduled to televise the action and kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

In this Sunday NFC game, Carolina has been tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Falcons are also receiving +150 moneyline odds while the Panthers are -170. Some good in-game betting opportunities could present themselves during the matchup, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 47 points.

With the line opening at -4 and the O/U initially set at 47.5, bookmakers have swayed the odds slightly.

The disappointing Falcons have lost 7.2 units so far and are 4-10 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 8-6.

The Panthers have lost 3.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-8 ATS and have an even O/U record of 7-7.

The Falcons have gone 5-9 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against NFC South opponents. The Panthers are 6-8 SU overall and 1-3 SU against divisional foes.

The Falcons are coming off a resounding 40-14 victory over Arizona in Week 15. The D did its part in the win, limiting the Cardinals to just 243 passing yards and 60 yards on the ground. David Johnson had a productive day for the Cardinals in that one with 33 rushing yards and a score on 11 attempts, along with 68 yards on three catches. Offensively, Matt Ryan completed 22-of-36 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns. Tevin Coleman (145 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) led the running attack while Julio Jones (six receptions, 82 yards, one TD) and Calvin Ridley (five catches, 42 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

In Week 15, New Orleans got the win against this Carolina crew by a score of 12-9. The Panthers defense allowed the Saints to kill the clock by running for 155 yards on 32 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Alvin Kamara put up a productive showing in the win for New Orleans, accounting for 67 rushing yards and a score on 14 attempts, along with 36 yards on seven catches. For Carolina, Cam Newton completed 16-of-29 passes for 131 yards and one interception. Christian McCaffrey (53 yards on 15 rush attempts) led the running game as McCaffrey (eight receptions, 67 yards) and Jarius Wright (three catches, 21 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Atlanta’s run the ball on 35.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Carolina has a rush percentage of 42.7 percent. The Falcons have run for 90.7 yards per game (including 78.5 per game against South opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Panthers are averaging 134.6 rushing yards per game (141.5 in conference) and have 15 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then the Panthers might own the advantage when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.3 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 4.2 to opponents. The Falcons have recorded 4.2 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.9 to opponents.

The Falcons offensive scheme has averaged 309.1 yards through the air overall (344.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 30 passing TDs so far. The Panthers have put up 249.4 pass yards per contest (266 against NFC competition) and have 25 total pass scores.

Defensively, Atlanta has allowed opponents to run for an average of 126.1 yards and throw for 267.9 yards per game. The Carolina defense has allowed 264.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 101.9 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Falcons have given up an ANY/A of 6.80 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers are allowing an ANY/A of 6.87.

Offensively, Ryan is already up to 4,045 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 70 percent of his 496 attempts with 27 scores through the air and only five interceptions. He’s got a 7.67 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.24 over the last two outings.

For the home team, Cam Newton has managed to complete 294-of-429 passes for 3,130 yards, 24 TDs and 12 INTs. Newton’s ANY/A sits at 6.25 for the season and 3.59 across his last two outings.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Panthers, ATS Winner: Falcons, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Falcons offense has produced seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Panthers have accounted for four such plays.
  • The Atlanta defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Carolina has given up 10 such plays.
  • The Atlanta offense has created six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Carolina has created 13 such runs.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Panthers have given up nine such runs.
  • The Atlanta defensive unit has 34 sacks on the year while Carolina has 32.
  • Atlanta, as a team, has rushed for 5.4 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 6.3 over its last two.
  • Carolina has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.0 over its past two.
  • Over its last three games, Carolina is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Atlanta’s last game was set at 43.5. The over cashed in the team’s 40-14 victory over Arizona.
  • In its last three contests, Atlanta is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Carolina’s last outing was set at 50. The under cashed in the 12-9 defeat to New Orleans.