Freddie Freeman and the Atlanta Braves are making a road trip to Miami to face a divisional opponent in the Marlins at Marlins Park. The matchup will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans looking to watch it can tune in to Fox SportsNet Florida.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Odds
Miami (+155) is the underdog to Atlanta (-165) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at eight runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at -115 for the under and -105 for the over. There’s a runline of Braves -1.5 (-115) and Marlins +1.5 (-105) for this matchup.
The Braves have gone 33-29 SU this year and are 30-31 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.7 units for moneyline bettors and 0.6 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in six of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 23-37 SU and 28-31 ATS. The team has gained 0.3 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 10.4 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Miami games have an over/under record of 27-30-2 so far in 2019. The Braves have been a decent over bet with a total record of 32-24-5.
Right-hander Mike Soroka will get the start for Atlanta. Soroka is 6-1 with a 1.41 ERA and 51 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Miami this year.
The Marlins are turning to righty Jose Urena (4-6, 4.14 ERA), who has 49 strikeouts and 22 walks as well as a 1.34 WHIP. Urena is 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 7.50 ERA in one start against Atlanta this year.
Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.39 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 8.14 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.33, along with a WHIP of 1.32.
The Braves offense has slashed .257/.332/.438 on its way to 5.0 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Atlanta’s offensive production has been powered by first baseman Freddie Freeman and left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who have combined to belt 28 home runs. Freeman is slashing .307/.393/.580 with 16 home runs, 38 RBIs and 45 runs scored, while Acuna Jr. is hitting .280 with 12 homers, 35 RBIs, 38 runs and eight steals.
In the other dugout, Miami’s pitching staff has allowed 4.5 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have a 3.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.20 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 28 games against divisional opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.70 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.65.
The Miami hitters have produced 3.6 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game against divisional foes and 8.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .304/.364/.508 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
Third baseman Brian Anderson and second baseman Starlin Castro have led the Marlins’ batters this year. Anderson is slashing .246/.329/.388 with seven home runs, 27 RBIs and 21 runs scored, while Castro’s line is .230/.265/.311 with four homers, 25 RBIs and 19 runs scored.
The Braves have lost 4.3 units and are 22-23 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 20 of those games, compared to 21 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 1.8 units and are 18-24 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 18 of those games, compared to 23 that’ve gone under.
Braves vs. Marlins MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – UNDER
Betting Trends
- The under has hit in just two of Miami’s last seven games.
- The Atlanta defense has permitted nine errors over the last 10 games, compared to only four errors for Miami over its last 10.
- The Braves have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.
- The Braves have an OPS of .770 this season and an OPS of .750 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .650 overall and .656 against righties.
