Army West Point Black Knights vs. Air Force Falcons – NCAA Football Free Pick

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Two schools that like to deploy their running games, Falcons (-15) are prepared to welcome the Army West Point Black Knights to Air Force. This afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS Sports Network.

Betting Preview: Air Force Falcons vs. Army West Point Black Knights

In this Saturday game, Air Force has been projected as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 15 points. The Black Knights are also receiving +510 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -750. Some good live betting scenarios may be unveiled during this matchup, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 45 points.

Early action has swayed in the direction of the Black Knights, as the line opened at -16. The game’s over/under has not changed after it was initially posted at 45.

The disappointing Black Knights have lost 7.8 units so far and are 2-6 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 3-4-1.

The Falcons are up 2.8 units this season. The team is 5-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-3.

The Black Knights are an ugly 3-5 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Falcons are 6-2 SU.

Army West Point enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak while Air Force has dropped its last four in a row. The Black Knights fell to San Jose State 34-29 in a game where their secondary allowed the Spartans to air it out for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Isaiah Hamilton had a good day for the Spartans in that one with 88 yards and a score on three catches. Offensively, Christian Anderson completed just three-of-8 passes for 22 yards. Anderson (87 rushing yards on 16 attempts, two TDs) also led the ground attack in the loss and was complemented by Sandon McCoy (39 yards on 13 carries, one TD). Camden Harrison (four receptions, 54 yards, one TD) and Artice Hobbs IV (one catch, 19 yards) handled the receiving duties.

The Air Force Falcons just earned a lopsided 31-7 win over Utah State. The defense did its part in the victory, holding the Aggies to just 114 passing yards and 14 rushing yards. Siaosi Mariner was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 38 yards on three catches for Utah State. For Air Force, Donald Hammond III completed one-of-five passes for 16 yards. Kadin Remsberg (92 rushing yards on 16 attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Hammond III (69 yards on nine carries) led the ground game in the win while Benjamin Waters (two receptions, 24 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Each of these squads sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Army West Point’s run the ball on 84.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Air Force has an overall rush percentage of 86.0. The Black Knights have produced 263.5 rush yards/game and have 23 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Falcons are averaging 322.5 rushing yards per game and have 31 total rush TDs.

It seems like the Falcons ought to own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has logged 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Black Knights have recorded 4.7 yards per carry while allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Black Knights offense has averaged 75.4 yards through the air overall and has five passing scores so far. The Falcons have recorded 120 pass yards per outing and have six total pass TDs.

Defensively, Army West Point has allowed opponents to run for an average of 150.3 yards and pass for 202.5 yards per game. The Air Force defense has allowed 216.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 92.8 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Black Knights have given up an ANY/A of 6.70 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons are allowing an ANY/A of 6.79.

Offensively, Hopkins Jr. is up to 387 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 41 percent of his 51 attempts with four scores through the air and two interceptions. Hopkins Jr. has a 6.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.80 over the last two outings.

Mike Schmidt has completed 5-of-6 passes for 147 yards, one TD and zero INTs for Air Force. His ANY/A stands at 27.83 for the year.

These two programs met last year with the final result being a 17-14 win for Army West Point.

Army West Point Black Knights vs. Air Force Falcons Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Air Force, ATS Winner: Air Force, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The Black Knights offense has recorded one pass play of 40+ yards, while the Falcons have accounted for seven such plays.
  • The Army West Point defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Air Force has given up two such plays.
  • The Army West Point offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Air Force has created 13 such runs.
  • The Black Knights defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Falcons have given up three such runs.
  • The Air Force defensive unit has notched 14 sacks on the year while Army West Point has 13.
  • As a team, Army West Point has averaged 4.4 yards per carry across its past three outings and 4.6 over its last two.
  • Air Force has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.2 over its last two.
  • Over its last three matches, Air Force is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Army West Point’s previous game was set at 54.5. The over cashed in the team’s 34-29 loss to San Jose State.
  • In its last three contests, Army West Point is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Air Force’s last match going into it was 60. The under cashed in the 31-7 victory over Utah State.