Akron Zips at Bowling Green Falcons – NCAA Football Free Pick

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The Akron Zips (+7) aren’t traveling far to face their in-conference foe Bowling Green Falcons at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. The daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 2:00 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to the action on ESPN+.

Betting Preview: Bowling Green Falcons vs. Akron Zips

Akron is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 7 points. The Zips are also receiving +210 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -270. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 48.5 points, and if one side can catch a lucky break early, it’ll probably produce a worthy betting scenario in-game.

This game’s line opened at -6. The total hasn’t moved since it opened at 48.5.

The disappointing Zips are down 9.7 units so far and 0-8 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 4-4.

The Falcons have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 2-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-6.

The Zips have gone 0-8 straight up (SU), including 0-4 SU against conference opponents. The Falcons are 2-6 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.

The Zips came up short to Northern Illinois 49-0 in a thumping where the passing game wasn’t where it needed to be as the Zips completed 7-of-26 passes for 51 yards and two interceptions. Zach Gibson went four-for-15 for 36 yards and one interception while Robbie Kelley completed one-of-seven for four yards and one interception. Brandon Lee (76 yards on 10 rushes) led the ground attack while Julian Hicks (three receptions, 22 yards) and Jeremiah Knight (one catch, 14 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, Western Michigan got the win against this Bowling Green team by a score of 49-10. Grant Loy completed 18-of-26 passes for 136 yards and two interceptions. Loy (62 yards on 11 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game as Quintin Morris (eight receptions, 56 yards) and RB Marlow III (five catches, 57 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Akron has run the ball on 43.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Bowling Green has an overall rush percentage of 57.4 percent. The Zips have rushed for 55.9 yards per game (including 59.8 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have two scores on the ground this year. The Falcons are putting up 165.8 rush yards per game (175.5 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Falcons should own an edge in the trenches. Their offensive line has allowed only 10 sacks while the D-line has registered 17 sacks. The Zips offensive line has given up 33 sacks and their defense has forced only five sacks.

The Zips offense has averaged 219.1 yards through the air overall (182 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Falcons have produced 168.4 pass yards per outing (173 against MAC competition) and have seven total pass scores.

Akron should have an edge in both defensive facets. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 208.1 yards and throw for 196.3 yards per game. The Bowling Green defense has allowed 248.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 237.6 yards per game on the ground. The Zips are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.39 to opponents, while the Falcons have given up a staggering 8.91 ANY/A.

Offensively, Gibson is up to 209 passing yards this season. He’s completed 16-of-31 attempts with one passing scores and one interception. He has a 4.79 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 1.46 over the past two outings.

Grant Loy has completed 56-of-90 passes for 513 yards, three TDs and four INTs for Bowling Green. His ANY/A stands at a terrible 3.51 for the year and 1.19 over his past two games.

When these two schools faced each other last year, Bowling Green earned the win 21-6.

Akron Zips at Bowling Green Falcons Free Prediction

SU Winner: Akron, ATS Winner: Akron, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Bowling Green offense has lost one fumble this season while Akron has lost 11.
  • The Bowling Green defense has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this year. Akron has registered just five sacks.
  • As a team, Akron has averaged 2.5 yards per carry over its past three games and 2.1 over its last two.
  • Bowling Green has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
  • In its last three matchups, Bowling Green is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Akron’s last game was set at 42. The over cashed in the team’s 49-0 defeat to Northern Illinois.
  • In its last three games, Akron is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Bowling Green’s last matchup was set at 65.5. The under cashed in the team’s 49-10 loss to Western Michigan.
  • Bowling Green has dropped seven of its last eight games SU, with a 13-point victory over Toledo on October 12th accounting for the one win over that stretch.