Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos – NCAA Football Betting Free Pick

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In a battle featuring two schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Lobos of New Mexico (-21.5) are ready to greet their MWC nemesis Air Force Falcons in Dreamstyle Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ATSN.

Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos vs. Air Force Falcons

Air Force is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 21.5 points to New Mexico. If the Lobos seize control early on it will result in a nice betting scenario in-game. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 58.5 points.

The Falcons have gained 3.8 units so far in 2019 and are 5-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 5-4.

The Lobos have lost 4.0 units this season. The team is 3-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-5.

The Falcons are 7-2 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against MWC opponents. The Lobos are 2-7 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play.

New Mexico enters this matchup on a zero-game winning streak while Air Force has lost each of its last zero. The Falcons continue to ride high after a 17-13 victory over Army West Point last week where Donald Hammond III completed just one passes on 6 attempts for 19 yards and one interception. Kadin Remsberg (54 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and Joshua Stoner (59 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Geraud Sanders (one receptions, 19 yards) and Remsberg (one catch, -3 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, Nevada got the win against this New Mexico team by a score of 21-10. Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti completed 19-of-36 passes for 237 yards. Ahmari Davis (80 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) led the running game while Marcus Williams (six receptions, 74 yards) and Emmanuel Logan-Greene (four catches, 54 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Air Force’s run the ball on 86.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has a rush percentage of 57.1 percent. The Falcons have produced 323.1 rush yards/game (including 353 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 33 scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are totaling 200.2 rushing yards per game (195.8 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.

It seems like the Falcons should hold an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Lobos have rushed for 5.0 yards per carry and given up 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Falcons offense has logged 108.4 yards/contest through the air overall (103.6 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing scores so far. The Lobos have recorded 218.7 pass yards per game (197 against MWC competition) and have nine total pass TDs.

Defensively, Air Force should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 96.8 yards and throw for 216.6 yards per game. The New Mexico defense has allowed 340.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 149.7 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.30 to opponents, while the Lobos have given up an ugly 9.2 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Hammond III is up to 696 yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 32-of-67 attempts with five scores through the air and four interceptions. He has an 8.60 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at -1.50 over the last two games.

The Falcons will likely try to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Donald Hammond III (0 yards), Kadin Remsberg (585 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Joshua Stoner (197 rush yards, one rush TD) have really been focal points in the Air Force offensive scheme.

In the home locker room, Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti has completed 62-of-123 passes for 957 yards, five TDs and four INTs. Salanoa-Tuioti’s ANY/A stands at 6.66 for the season and 5.56 over his last two games.

The Lobos will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Ahmari Davis (63 receiving yards), Anselem Umeh (128 receiving yards) and Jordan Kress (349 receiving yards and three TDs) have seen a lot of action recently.

When these two schools faced each other last year, Air Force earned the win 42-24.

Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos Free Pick

SU Winner: New Mexico, ATS Winner: New Mexico, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for Air Force’s previous game going into it was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 17-13 victory over Army West Point.
  • Air Force, as a team, has averaged 6.1 yards per rush attempt across its last three contests and 5.8 over its last two.
  • New Mexico has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.3 over its past two.
  • The New Mexico offense has lost six fumbles this season while Air Force has lost nine.
  • Over its last three contests, Air Force is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for New Mexico’s last outing was set at 58. The under cashed in the team’s 21-10 defeat to Nevada.
  • Over its last three contests, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • New Mexico has dropped eight of its last nine games SU, with a three-point win over New Mexico State on September 21st accounting for its lone victory over that stretch.
  • The Falcons offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lobos have put up nine such plays.
  • The Air Force defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while New Mexico has given up 17 such plays.
  • The Air Force offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New Mexico has created 16 such runs.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Lobos have given up 14 such runs.
  • The New Mexico defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 20 times this year. Air Force has registered just 14 sacks.