NLCS Game 4 Preview: Brewers @ Dodgers

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Date: Friday, October 17, 2025
Time: 8:38 pm ET / 5:38 pm PT
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
TV / Streaming: TBS, truTV, HBO Max

🔍 Series Context & Stakes

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the series 3–0 and need just one more win to clinch the National League pennant.
  • The Milwaukee Brewers, despite being the No. 1 seed, are facing elimination. To reach the World Series, they must accomplish a four-game sweep — no small feat.
  • The Dodgers’ momentum has been fueled by dominant pitching: in Games 1–3, they’ve allowed only a handful of runs, with stellar starts from Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow.
  • Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s offense has struggled to produce with runners in scoring position, and their bullpen has faced pressure to suppress further damage.

📊 Betting Odds & Lines

  • The Dodgers are heavy favorites. The moneyline sits around −204 for L.A., with Milwaukee +170 as the underdog.
  • The run total (over/under) is set around 7.5 runs.
  • Run-line markets: Dodgers at −1.5 is a common line in this matchup.
  • Betting models (e.g. from CBS Sports) lean toward the Over, projecting a total of roughly 8.8 runs in their simulations.

🧢 Starting Pitching & Matchups

  • Dodgers Starter: Shohei Ohtani (expected) will take the mound with a chance to close out the series.
  • Brewers Starter: Milwaukee will turn to José Quintana or another veteran arm (depending on bullpen usage and rest), hoping to force at least one more game.
  • Bullpen Battle: The Dodgers bullpen has been nearly flawless in relief, with pitchers like Rōki Sasaki closing down games.
  • On the Brewers’ side, arms like Jacob Misiorowski have shown flashes of dominance (e.g. striking out 9 in relief), but consistency and depth will be tested.

💡 Key Factors to Watch

  1. Momentum & Confidence
    The Dodgers are playing with swagger—winning tightly-contested games, doing it with pitching and defense, and building psychological edge.
  2. Milwaukee’s Response & Urgency
    With their backs against the wall, the Brewers must attack early, put pressure on Ohtani, and force the Dodgers into the bullpen earlier than desired.
  3. Health & Depth
    Brewers’ star Jackson Chourio left Game 3 with a leg cramp — any lingering effect could hamper their offense.
  4. Errors & Execution in Key Moments
    The Dodgers have forced timely mistakes. In Game 3, a reliever pick-off mishap opened the door for an insurance run.
    Milwaukee must avoid mental mistakes under pressure.
  5. Bullpen Management
    If Ohtani is lifted early, how the Dodgers manage their relievers could be crucial. The Brewers will aim to exploit any mismatch or fatigue in L.A.’s relief corps.

🏁 Prediction & Best Bets

Projection:

  • Win: Dodgers
  • Projected Score: Dodgers 5, Brewers 3 or 6
  • Total Runs: Lean Over 7.5
  • Value Plays:
    • Dodgers moneyline (given their form and pitching matchup)
    • Over in run total
    • Consider moderate play on Brewers +1.5 in case they stay in the game late