The Air Force Falcons (7-8, 1-2 MWC) and their phenomenal offense will be 7-point underdogs when they welcome the Utah State Aggies (13-4, 2-2 MWC) and their exceptional defense. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 150 points and it can be seen on ESPN2 at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 7, 2020.
Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons ATS Odds
Both teams were beaten in their last game. The Aggies (3.5-point favorites) were defeated by the 13th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs, 77-68, while the Falcons (6-point underdogs) fell to the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, 71-59. The Utah State game finished 15 points over the projected point total of 130, while the Air Force game went 11 points under the projected point total of 141.
Utah State forced San Diego State into a turnover percentage of 18.8 (above their season average of 14.1) while Air Force had an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.0 (above their season average of 20.8). Ryan Swan played well for Air Force, finishing with 18 points and six rebounds. Utah State, meanwhile, rallied around Neemias Queta, who finished with 15 points and 14 rebounds.
The Aggies dominated this series last year, taking both games. In the most recent game, Utah State won 76-62. Utah State’s rebounding was their biggest advantage. The Aggies had 11 offensive rebounds and 37 total rebounds, while the Falcons had six and 28, respectively. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
A little over half of the Aggies’ games have finished under the total. Utah State is 13-4 straight up (SU), but they are just 5-10 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Falcons’ 14 games with betting action, 9 have finished over the projected point total. Moreover, Air Force is 7-8 SU and 7-7 ATS.
This battle pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Air Force currently ranks 14th in offensive efficiency and Utah State is 29th in defensive efficiency. Ball protection should be an advantage for the Aggies. They rank 55th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 17.3 percent), while the Falcons force the 38th-fewest turnovers in the nation (opponents’ turnover percentage of 17.4 percent).
Utah State vs. Air Force Pick
College Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Air Force, ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Utah State ranks 10th in rebounds per game (41.9) while Air Force ranks 272nd (30.7).
- The Aggies average 21.7 three pointers per game, which ranks 162nd in the nation. The Falcons rank 248th in three pointers allowed per game (26.5).
- The Aggies rank 24th in assists per game (16.8) while the Falcons rank 183rd in assists allowed per game (14.1).
- Air Force ranks 29th in blocks allowed per game (2.5) while Utah State ranks 133rd (3.9).
- Air Force is 3-3 ATS at home, while Utah State is 2-6 ATS on the road.
- The Aggies have 4 unders, 3 overs and 1 push in 8 road games.
- The Falcons have 5 overs and 1 under in 6 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Utah State and Air Force are both 1-3 ATS.
- The Aggies have 2 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Falcons have 3 overs and 1 under
- During their last five games, the Aggies have scored an average of 78.2 points per game (1.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 68.8 points per game (5.6 above their season average).
- The Falcons’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 18.6, up from 5.3 for the season.
