Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction 11/29/19

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A seven-game home winning streak is on the line for the Miami Heat (12-5) when they challenge the Golden State Warriors (4-15) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 29, 2019, and will air on NBC Sports – Bay Area.

Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat Betting Odds

The Warriors will be hoping for a similar result after topping the Chicago Bulls in their last game, 104-90, as 2.5-point underdogs. The Heat, meanwhile, were defeated by the Houston Rockets, 117-108, and failed to cover as 7-point underdogs. The Golden State game finished 21 points under the projected point total of 215, while the Miami game finished 1 point under the projected point total of 226.

Golden State dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.235 (above their season average of 0.219) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.7 (above their season average of 22.0). Chicago was 0.135 and 25.5, respectively, for those same stats. Miami, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.550 vs. 0.555). Miami’s Bam Adebayo had a solid performance, finishing with 17 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Alec Burks fueled Golden State with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.

This series was highly competitive last year, as the teams split their two games last season. The Heat won the most recent game 126-125. The Heat’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Warriors. Miami had a rate of 29.3, while Golden State posted a mark of 18.2. This will be the first contest of the year between these two teams.

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Warriors games, with 10 overs compared to 9 unders. Golden State comes into the game with records of 4-15 straight up (SU) and 9-10 against the spread (ATS).

In opposition of Golden State, just over half of Heat games have finished under the total. Additionally, Miami is 12-5 SU and 11-4-2 ATS.

From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami should have a substantial edge. The sweet-shooting Heat offense ranks first in the NBA in that metric at 0.556, while the suspect Golden State defense is ranked 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.553).

Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat Odds Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Warriors average 14.2 fast break points per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. The Heat rank 14th in fast break points allowed per game (13.1).
  • Miami ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.6) while Golden State ranks 22nd (5.8).
  • The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (40.6) while the Warriors rank 21st (46.3).
  • Golden State ranks 10th in points off turnovers (18.4 per game) while Miami ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed (21.4 per game).
  • Miami ranks 20th in points in the paint per game (46.0) while Golden State ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (50.4).
  • The Heat rank seventh in assists per game (25.6) while the Warriors rank 27th in assists allowed per game (26.4).
  • The Heat rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (32.5) while the Warriors rank 27th (29.6).
  • Miami ranks 22nd in second chance points per game (11.9) while Golden State ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (14.0).
  • Golden State averages 8.1 steals per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Miami ranks 29th in steals allowed per game (9.6).
  • When allowing below 100 points, Miami is 4-1 and Golden State is 2-1.
  • When reaching 100 points, the Warriors are 4-10 and the Heat are 12-2.
  • Miami is 6-0-1 ATS at home, while Golden State is 5-5 ATS on the road.
  • In 10 road games, the Warriors have 6 overs and 4 unders.
  • The Heat have 4 overs and 3 unders in 7 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Warriors are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Golden State has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Miami has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Warriors’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.4, down from 8.7 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 110.2 points per game (0.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.6 points per game (2.5 above their season average).