The Houston Rockets (11-6) and their outstanding offense host the Miami Heat (12-4) and their stifling defense. Action gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 27, 2019, and can be seen on ATTSN Southwest.
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets Betting Odds
The Heat come in on a high note after covering the 10.5-point spread against the Charlotte Hornets in their last contest, 117-100. The Rockets, meanwhile, were topped by the Dallas Mavericks, 137-123, and failed to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Miami game went 4.5 points over the projected point total of 212.5, while the Houston game finished 31 points over the projected point total of 229.
Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.312 (above their season average of 0.235) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.604 (above their season average of 0.554). For those same stats, Charlotte was 0.218 and 0.466, respectively. Houston, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.6 (above their season average of 22.6). Clint Capela had a good game for Houston, recording 21 points and 23 rebounds. Meanwhile, Bam Adebayo played a key role for Miami with 21 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.
In their first matchup this year, Jimmy Butler led the Heat to a 129-100 victory. He produced 18 points, nine assists and seven rebounds. The two teams combined for 229 points, which was just under the projected point total of 234, and Miami covered as a 3-point underdog. The Heat’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Rockets. Miami had a rate of 13.2, while Houston posted a mark of 19.2.
It’s tough to find a trend for Heat games in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Miami comes into the game with records of 12-4 straight up (SU) and 11-3-2 against the spread (ATS).
Games featuring the Rockets have typically gone under the O/U total (58.8 percent). Moreover, Houston is 11-6 SU and 9-8 ATS.
This battle pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Houston currently ranks fourth in offensive efficiency and Miami ranks first in defensive efficiency.
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets Free Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank second in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while the Rockets rank 11th (4.5).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (45.5) while Miami ranks 26th in three pointers allowed per game (36.1).
- The Heat rank second in steals per game (9.5) while the Rockets rank 21st in steals allowed per game (8.4).
- Miami scores 19.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Houston ranks 23rd in points off turnovers given up (19.1 per game).
- Miami ranks eighth in assists per game (25.9) while Houston ranks 24th in assists allowed per game (25.8).
- The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (40.4) while the Rockets rank 25th (47.5).
- The Heat rank 10th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.4) while the Rockets rank 26th (51.8).
- Houston averages 14.5 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Miami ranks 12th in second chance points allowed per game (13.2).
- Houston ranks fifth in fast break points per game (15.5) while Miami ranks 26th (11.4).
- When holding opponents under 100 points, Miami is 4-1 and Houston is 2-0.
- The Heat are 12-1 when they score above 100 points, while the Rockets are 11-5.
- Houston is 4-4 ATS at home, while Miami is 5-3-1 ATS on the road.
- Of the Heat’s 9 road games, they have 5 unders and 4 overs.
- The Rockets have 5 overs and 3 unders in 8 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Miami and Houston have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Rockets are 3-2.
- The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.4, up from 6.8 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 118.8 points per game (0.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.4 points per game (0.3 above their season average).
