New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz ATS Prediction 11/23/19

Posts AdminArticles, Basketball, NBA

The NBA’s top scoring defense will be an 8-point favorite at home in Vivint Smart Home Arena, when the Utah Jazz (10-5) clash with the New Orleans Pelicans (6-9). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 222.5 points and action starts at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 23, 2019.

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Jazz (3-point underdogs) defeated the Golden State Warriors 113-109, while the Pelicans (3.5-point underdog) beat the Phoenix Suns 124-121. The Utah game finished 1 point under the projected point total of 223, while the New Orleans game went 10.5 points over the projected point total of 234.5.

The Pelicans had an extraordinary effective field goal percentage of 0.625 (above their season average of 0.536) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (21.6 vs. 20.0). The Jazz, meanwhile, held the Warriors to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.0 (below their season average of 22.7). The Warriors had a free throw rate of 0.117 (below their season average of 0.229). Utah was lifted by Donovan Mitchell, who recorded 30 points. Brandon Ingram, meanwhile played a pivotal role for New Orleans with 28 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

The Jazz edged out the Pelicans in this series last year, winning two out of three games. In the most recent matchup, Utah won 114-104. The Jazz’s 20.9 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Pelicans, who had a mark of 16.3. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Pelicans games, with 8 overs compared to 7 unders. New Orleans heads into the game with records of 6-9 straight up (SU) and 7-8 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Jazz’s 14 games that accepted bets, 11 have finished under the total. Utah has a solid 10-5 SU record, but they are just 5-9 ATS.

Both teams have had a couple of players take their game to the next level over their last five games. Jrue Holiday (22 points,8.2 assists,5.4 rebounds,2.0 steals) and E’Twaun Moore (14 points) have been fantastic for the Pelicans, while Rudy Gobert (19 points,15.0 rebounds,3.0 blocks) and Mike Conley (17 points,5.8 assists) have contributed greatly to the Jazz.

The physical Utah offense looks poised to dominate from the free throw line. The Jazz currently rank second in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.237, while New Orleans is among the NBA’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 23rd-ranked FTA rate of 0.226). It will also be a tale of two paces as the fast-breaking Pelicans rank fourth in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Jazz rank 24th.

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz Betting Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Pelicans rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Jazz rank 15th (5.1).
  • Utah ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.5) while New Orleans ranks 29th (18.5).
  • The Pelicans rank fifth in three pointers attempted per game (39.0) while the Jazz rank 24th (29.9).
  • New Orleans ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (18.9) while Utah ranks 25th (15.3).
  • New Orleans ranks ninth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Utah ranks 26th (9.9).
  • The Jazz rank seventh in points allowed in the paint per game (44.5) while the Pelicans rank 27th (52.5).
  • The Pelicans rank fifth in steals per game (8.8) while the Jazz rank 22nd (6.5).
  • Utah averages 45.5 rebounds per game, which ranks 16th in the league. New Orleans ranks 17th in rebounds allowed per game (45.9).
  • Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (19.1) while New Orleans ranks 21st (25.3).
  • Utah is 5-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Jazz are 9-3 and the Pelicans are 6-8.
  • New Orleans is 3-4 ATS on the road, while Utah is 3-4 ATS at home.
  • The Pelicans have 4 overs and 3 unders in 7 road games.
  • Of the Jazz’s 7 home games, they have 5 unders and 2 overs.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, New Orleans and Utah have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Jazz are 2-3.
  • During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 114.6 points per game (1.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (6.8 below their season average).
  • The Jazz’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.2, down from 3.7 for the season.