A five-game home winning streak is on the line for the Miami Heat (9-3) when they welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers (4-9) to AmericanAirlines Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports – Ohio at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 20, 2019.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat Betting Odds
In the Heat’s last game, they covered the 8-point spread against the New Orleans Pelicans, 109-94. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, were blown out by the New York Knicks, 123-105, and were unable to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. The Miami game went 23 points under the projected point total of 226, while the Cleveland game went 18 points over the projected point total of 210.
Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.148 (below their season average of 0.230) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.3 (above their season average of 20.3). For those same stats, New Orleans was 0.049 and 16.3, respectively. Cleveland, on the other hand, was lights out from three-point territory (17-36; 47.2 percent). Miami rallied around Bam Adebayo, who had 18 points and 13 rebounds. Kevin Porter Jr. led the way for Cleveland, putting up 18 points.
In their first matchup this season, Adebayo led the Heat to a 108-97 victory. He registered a double-double with 16 points and 15 rebounds. Miami covered as a 4.5-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 205 points, which was under the projected point total of 214.5. Miami was lights out from beyond the arc (12-30; 40.0 percent). Cleveland, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.9 vs. 11.8).
Of the Cavaliers’ 13 games, eight have finished under the O/U total. Cleveland comes into the game with records of 4-9 straight up (SU) and 6-5-2 against the spread (ATS).
Coinciding with Cleveland, Heat games also tend to finish under the total (58.3 percent). Additionally, Miami is 9-3 SU and 8-2-2 ATS.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami figures to have a noteworthy advantage. The sharp-shooting Heat offense ranks first in the NBA in that metric at 0.553, while the bottom-tier Cleveland defense is ranked 21st in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.533).
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Cavaliers rank 17th in second chance points per game (12.9) while the Heat rank 26th (11.2).
- Miami ranks fifth in assists per game (26.3) while Cleveland ranks 28th (19.5).
- The Heat rank seventh in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while the Cavaliers rank 26th (7.4).
- Miami ranks first in steals per game (9.9) while Cleveland ranks 16th (7.6).
- Miami ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while Cleveland ranks 15th (45.8).
- The Cavaliers rank seventh in three pointers allowed per game (31.5) while the Heat rank 28th (37.3).
- The Heat average 48.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Cavaliers rank 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.8).
- Miami ranks 17th in fast break points per game (12.8) while Cleveland ranks 25th (10.9).
- Miami ranks fourth in points off turnovers per game (20.2) while Cleveland ranks 24th (14.5).
- Miami is 4-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Cleveland is 2-2.
- The Heat are 9-1 when they score above 100 points, while the Cavaliers are 4-4.
- Miami is 4-0-1 ATS at home, while Cleveland is 4-2-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 3 of the Heat’s 5 home games, while 5 of the Cavaliers’ 7 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Heat are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Cavaliers are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Cleveland has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 107.6 points per game (3.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.4 points per game (3.6 below their season average).
- The Cavaliers’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.6, up from 4.4 for the season.
