Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction 11/20/19

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The Dallas Mavericks (8-5) will be 13.5-point favorites at home in the American Airlines Center when they go head-to-head with the Golden State Warriors (3-12). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 221.5 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 20, 2019.

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last matchup. The Mavericks (4.5-point favorites) defeated the San Antonio Spurs 117-110, while the Warriors (3.5-point underdog) beat the Memphis Grizzlies 114-95. The Dallas game finished 2.5 points over the projected point total of 224.5, while the Golden State game finished 17 points under the projected point total of 226.

Golden State played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.8 (above their season average of 22.8) and a free throw rate of 0.211 (matching their season average). Memphis was 14.9 and 0.159, respectively, for those same stats. The Mavericks, on the other hand, had a better free throw rate (0.190 vs. 0.146) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.601 (above their season average of 0.522). Luka Doncic put together a great outing for Dallas, registering 42 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds on his way to his fifth triple-double of the season. Golden State, meanwhile, was led by Alec Burks, who put up 29 points and eight rebounds.

This series was highly competitive last year. Each won two of the four games played against each other last season. The Mavericks won the last matchup 126-91. Dallas launched 49 three pointers, making 21 of them (42.9 percent), while Golden State was just 4-30 (13.3 percent). This will be the first meeting of the year between these two teams.

Warriors games have a tendency to go over the projected point total (57.1 percent). Golden State comes into the contest with records of 3-12 straight up (SU) and 5-9 against the spread (ATS).

Games featuring the Mavericks also have a tendency to go over the O/U total (61.5 percent). Moreover, Dallas is 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS.

The high-octane offense of Dallas (first in the league with an offensive efficiency of 111.1) will face off against the bottom-tier defense of Golden State (29th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 112.6). The Mavericks figure to have the advantage on that end of the court. Additionally, the Warriors, who rank fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.233), will face a tough challenge against the Mavericks, who rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.161).

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Warriors rank 12th in fast break points per game (13.7) while the Mavericks rank 19th in fast break points allowed per game (13.8).
  • Dallas ranks fifth in second chance points per game (15.1) while Golden State ranks 26th in second chance points allowed per game (15.7).
  • The Mavericks rank 11th in assists allowed per game (23.1) while the Warriors rank 27th (26.6).
  • Dallas ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Golden State ranks 15th (5.1).
  • Golden State ranks 18th in steals per game (7.5) while Dallas ranks 26th (5.7).
  • The Mavericks rank third in three pointers attempted per game (39.6) while the Warriors rank 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (34.7).
  • The Mavericks rank 13th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.5) while the Warriors rank 25th (51.9).
  • Golden State averages 18.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. Dallas ranks 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2).
  • Dallas ranks third in rebounds per game (47.5) while Golden State ranks 19th (44.7).
  • In games where they allow under 100 points, Golden State is 1-1.
  • The Warriors are 3-9 when they reach the century mark, while the Mavericks are 8-5.
  • Dallas is 2-5 ATS at home, while Golden State is 3-4 ATS on the road.
  • The Warriors have 4 overs and 3 unders in 7 road games.
  • In 7 home games, the Mavericks have 4 overs and 3 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Warriors are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Dallas has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Golden State has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 114.8 points per game (0.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.2 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
  • The Warriors’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.8, down from 8.3 for the season.