The Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) begin their home schedule at Target Center as 6-point favorites against the Miami Heat (2-0). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – North at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 27, 2019.
Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds
Both teams covered in their last contest. The Timberwolves (5-point favorites) defeated the Charlotte Hornets 121-99, while the Heat (6.5-point underdog) beat the Milwaukee Bucks 131-126. The Minnesota game finished 5.5 points under the projected point total of 225.5, while the Miami game finished 43 points over the projected point total of 214.
Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.0 and a turnover percentage of 12.0. Milwaukee was 9.8 and 14.1, respectively, for those same stats. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, had a better free throw rate (0.253 vs. 0.155) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (28.3 vs. 18.8). Karl-Anthony Towns had a good game for Minnesota, putting up 37 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists. Bam Adebayo, meanwhile was a key piece for Miami with 19 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists.
Since last season, the Heat are 41-43 straight up (SU) and 43-41-4 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Miami games since last season with 45 unders compared to 40 overs.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves, have records of 38-46 SU and 42-44-3 ATS since last season. Games involving Minnesota have had a tendency to finish over the O/U total over that same period (55.1 percent).
Miami may have a tough time creating turnovers. Since last season, Minnesota ranks third in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while Miami has forced the 13th-most turnovers (13.6 percent). Also, the Heat could have their way on defense. They rank fifth in the NBA with an opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 0.509, while the Timberwolves’ offense ranks 25th in effective field goal percentage (0.511).
Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes (2018-Present):
- The Heat average 46.5 rebounds per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Timberwolves rank 17th in rebounds allowed per game (45.6).
- Miami ranks fifth in assists allowed per game (23.3) while Minnesota ranks 28th (26.1).
- The Timberwolves rank eighth in points off turnovers per game (17.5) while the Heat rank 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2).
- Miami ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (42.5) while Minnesota ranks 15th (49.0).
- Miami ranks 14th in three pointers attempted per game (32.4) while Minnesota ranks 25th (29.0).
- The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Timberwolves rank 27th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
- The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.6) while the Heat rank 13th (7.5).
- Minnesota ranks 21st in fast break points per game (11.6) while Miami ranks 29th (10.0).
- Miami ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.2) while Minnesota ranks 27th in second chance points allowed per game (14.6).
- In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Minnesota is 13-1 and Miami is 22-3.
- The Timberwolves are 37-39 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 37-23.
