Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies will do battle against their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in a Saturday showdown. NBC Sports Philadelphia will televise the matchup and the game is slated to get underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Las Vegas has Miami (+105) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-115). The total currently stands at 8.5 runs and gamblers can play the over for -120 or the under for an even +100. There’s a runline of Phillies -1.5 (+130) and Marlins +1.5 (-150) for this matchup.
The Marlins are only 31-49 straight up (SU) and 38-41 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 0.7 units for moneyline bettors and 11.8 units ATS. On the other hand, the Phillies are 43-39 SU and have gone 39-42 ATS. In total, the club has lost 2.9 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 3.3 units ATS.
Miami games have an over/under record of 36-39-4 thus far in 2019. Phillies games have gone under 40 times, gone over 38 times and pushed on three instances.
The right-handed Zach Eflin will get the nod for Philadelphia. Eflin is 7-7 with a 3.26 ERA and 77 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with seven strikeouts and a 4.85 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins are preparing to start righty Jordan Yamamoto (3-0, 0.95 ERA), who’s got 19 strikeouts and eight walks as well as a WHIP of 0.79. Yamamoto is 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA in one start against Philadelphia this year.
Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.12 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.61, along with a WHIP of 1.35 and a K-per-9 of 9.05.
Phillies hitters have slashed .242/.323/.421 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this season, including 5.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have paced Philadelphia’s hitters. Hernandez is slashing .281/.336/.429 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 38 runs scored. Segura (.270/.315/.453) has produced 10 homers, 38 RBIs and 47 runs scored.
For the home team, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.87, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.96 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 38 games against NL East foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.79 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.92.
Miami’s offense is putting up 3.5 runs per outing, including 3.5 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .257/.319/.413 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
First baseman Miguel Rojas and third baseman Brian Anderson have led the charge for the Marlins’ hitters this year. Rojas is hitting .285/.349/.356 with 77 hits, 23 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .251/.333/.418 with 11 homers, 37 RBIs and 29 runs.
The Phillies have gained 3.4 units and are 29-30 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 26 of those games, compared to 30 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 0.3 units and are 27-32 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 24 of those games, as opposed to 32 which went under the total.
Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The under has hit in three of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
- Philadelphia fielders have eight errors over the last 10 games, compared to only two errors for Miami over its last 10.
- The Phillies have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games, including 13 over their last five.
- The Phillies have an OPS of .744 this season and an OPS of .729 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .650 overall and .649 against righties.
