The Philadelphia Phillies will go for their fourth consecutive win as they play host to the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The action will get underway at 1:05 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to SportsNet New York to catch the game.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
New York (+125) is coming into this one as the underdog to Philadelphia (-135) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 9.5 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds standing at -170 for the Mets +1.5 runs and +150 for the Phillies -1.5.
The Mets have gone 37-44 SU this year and are 37-43 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 13.0 units for moneyline gamblers and 12.4 units ATS. New York has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 42-38 SU and 38-41 ATS. They’ve lost 4.8 units for moneyline bettors and 3.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Philadelphia games have a 38-39-2 over/under record so far in 2019. New York has been a solid over bet with a total record of 45-28-7.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler is the probable starter for the visiting Mets. Wheeler (6-5, 4.69 ERA) has recorded 108 strikeouts in 101.2 innings so far. He’s 1-1 with 16 strikeouts and a 1.93 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).
The Phillies are handing the ball to righty Aaron Nola (6-2, 4.55 ERA), who’s got 100 punchouts and 37 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.45. Nola is 0-0 with six strikeouts and an 11.25 ERA in one start against New York this year.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 4.8 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The team’s starters have a 4.53 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.54 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 36 games against divisional foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.67 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.03.
The Philadelphia hitters have produced 4.8 runs per outing, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .270/.352/.529 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Phillies’ offense has been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is slashing .286/.338/.438 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 37 runs scored, while Segura is hitting .275 with nine homers, 35 RBIs and 46 runs scored.
In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.11 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.53, along with a WHIP of 1.28 and a K/9 of 9.34.
Mets hitters have slashed .255/.330/.436 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this season, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
New York’s hitters have been paced by left fielder Jeff McNeil and first baseman Pete Alonso, who’ve collectively swatted 33 home runs. McNeil is slashing .351/.414/.514 with six home runs, 30 RBIs and 34 runs scored, while Alonso (.281/.371/.634) has produced 27 homers, 61 RBIs and 52 runs scored.
The Mets have lost 10.3 units and are 27-34 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 35 of those games, as opposed to 21 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 2.4 units and are 28-30 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 26 of those games, as opposed to 30 that’ve cashed the under.
Mets vs. Phillies Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- New York has tallied 24 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Philadelphia has 22 XBH over its last five.
- The Mets have hit 21 home runs in their last 10 games, including 13 over their last five.
- The Mets have a team OPS of .766 this season and an OPS of .747 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .746 overall and .730 versus righties.
- New York has recorded 25.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 28.2 over its last five.
